Australia already ate our lamb market once
Before Australia signed its own free trade agreement with India in 2022, New Zealand supplied around 89% of India’s imported lamb. Today that figure is 91% in Australia’s favour. The reversal wasn’t about product quality. As Trade Minister Todd McClay put it: “That’s not because Australian lamb is better. It’s because a 30 percent tariff at the border makes it almost impossible to compete.”
The NZ-India FTA, confirmed for formal signing on 27 April in New Delhi, is supposed to fix that. The 33% tariff on sheep meat drops to zero on day one. Across all categories, more than 50% of NZ exports become duty-free immediately, with tariff savings of $43 million from day one rising to $62 million based on current volumes. The average tariff on NZ exports falls to 3% from a regime where many categories currently face 30-60%.
The commercial opportunity is real. The question is whether NZ businesses are remotely ready to capture it.
The sectors with something to gain immediately
Sheep meat is the clearest win, but it’s not alone. 95% of forestry exports go tariff-free immediately, down from duties of 5.5% to 11%. That matters, but context is needed: a bilateral fumigation dispute caused radiata pine exports to India to collapse from $326 million in 2019 to just $9.5 million in 2023. A tariff cut does not rebuild a broken supply relationship.
Kiwifruit gets preferential access to 1.4 billion consumers, with the 33% tariff eliminated on 6,250 tonnes from day one, growing to 15,000 tonnes over six years. Apples see their 50% tariff halved for 32,500 tonnes immediately, and since current exports sit at 31,392 tonnes, the quota starts above existing trade, giving genuine room to grow.
Wine faces the longest road. The 150% tariff reduces by 66-83% but over ten years. ExportNZ’s Joshua Tan warned that delay is dangerous: “If we are too slow, sectors can be left at a disadvantage to other deals that India are completing. Namely, the EU deal, which offers better access to the wine exporters.”
Dairy, NZ’s biggest export sector, is largely excluded. A significant gap.
Most businesses know about the deal but can’t use it
The Auckland Business Chamber’s NZ-India Business Momentum 2026 report surveyed 74 businesses and found a stark gap between awareness and capability. While 48% reported high FTA awareness, confidence in the mechanics was far lower: only 45% felt confident determining product eligibility, only 42% understood rules of origin, and just 37% could navigate Indian customs and tariff systems.
Perhaps most damning: 43% had low confidence in understanding how Indian states differ. AUT’s Rahul Sen put it sharply: “The top 10 fastest growing states in India over the last five years are not the ones where current focus of New Zealand exporters or investors are.”
NZ firms are targeting the wrong parts of a country they already struggle to navigate. That is not a recipe for capturing a deal worth potentially $8.57 billion in bilateral merchandise trade within five years.
Parliament hasn’t said yes yet
Signing on 27 April triggers the parliamentary process but does not complete it. Labour leader Chris Hipkins said the government was “playing politics” with trade policy and that the deal did not currently have majority support. NZ First’s Winston Peters called FTA supporters people signing “a contract blindfolded”.
Industry is not waiting politely. Twenty-eight exporters and industry associations, including Zespri, Federated Farmers, and Seafood NZ, signed an open letter urging cross-party support. BusinessNZ’s Katherine Rich was blunt: “We cannot afford to delay this deal.”
The preparation window is now
India currently accounts for just 1.5% of NZ’s total exports despite being the fastest-growing G20 economy with a middle class expected to exceed 700 million within five years. The gap between that potential and NZ’s current readiness is the real story of this FTA.
Trade deals do not create exports. Businesses that have their rules of origin sorted, their distribution partners locked in, their pricing recalibrated for a post-tariff market, and their state-level strategy mapped will capture the gains. Everyone else will read about it in someone else’s annual report. The lamb market already showed what happens when a competitor moves first. That lesson cost NZ exporters years of market share they are only now getting a chance to win back.
Sources
- RNZ: New Zealand and India free trade agreement confirmed (2026-04-24)
- RNZ: New Zealand’s top exporters call on parliament to back free trade agreement with India (2026-04-14)
- RNZ: Unpacking the details of New Zealand’s free trade deal with India (2025-12-22)
- WBN: India opens doors (2026-03-31)
- MFAT: Key outcomes of the NZ-India FTA
- MFAT: Key facts on New Zealand-India trade
- MFAT: NZ-India FTA overview
- Wood Central: 95% timber tariff cuts on the line as NZ-India FTA heads to signing (2026-04-23)
- Awaaz: NZ firms want India but they aren’t sure how to do India, finds FTA survey (2026-04-14)
- NZ Herald: Unpacking the details of New Zealand’s free trade deal with India – Explainer (2025-12-22)
- Indian Weekender: India-NZ FTA business leaders push for cross-party backing (2026-04-14)