April 10, 2026

What happens to a $6.7 billion harvest when the bees run out

Beekeeper wearing suit and gloves inspecting a hive outdoors, focusing on bee health and honey production.

A good year that still lost 57,000 colonies

New Zealand lost 57,811 bee colonies in winter 2024, an overall loss rate of 8.4% from a surveyed base of 535,185. That is down from 9.1% the previous year. Varroa-specific losses fell to 4.6%, the first national decline since systematic measurement began in 2015.

Headlines called it a success story. It is, narrowly. But the improvement was earned through brute-force treatment compliance, not any structural fix. Over 70% of beekeepers now use more than one product to combat varroa, and two-thirds of commercial operators treat twice or more during autumn. That is a treadmill, not a solution.

The trajectory nobody should forget

Before 2024’s modest reprieve, the direction was relentlessly upward. Colony loss rates increased from 8.37% in 2015 to 13.59% in 2021. Varroa’s share of attributed losses went from roughly 12% seven years ago to 50% by 2021-22, overtaking queen problems as the leading killer of hives for the first time.

The geographic picture is still ugly. The 2024 North Island loss rate hit 14.7%, nearly double the South Island’s 8.5%. The North Island, where varroa has been established since 2000, carries disproportionate damage. Dr Pike Stahlmann-Brown from the Bioeconomy Science Institute, who directs the survey, is measured about the improvement: “Contrast this with the US, where over 60% of colonies were lost during an eight-month period, and you realise that we’re doing a pretty good job of it in NZ.” But he adds a warning: “If you leave treatment too long, your varroa can overwhelm your colonies even if you treat.”

This is a horticulture problem, not a beekeeper problem

The colony loss story is routinely framed as an apiculture issue. It is not. It is an input cost and crop reliability risk for anyone growing fruit.

Mark Ross, chief executive of Animal and Plant Health, has noted that varroa mites jeopardise bee contribution to NZ’s $6.7 billion horticultural sector. Pollination services are estimated to contribute $5 billion annually to the NZ economy. Some 37% of beekeepers with 50 or more colonies provide commercial pollination services, averaging 1.5 crops per colony per season.

Kiwifruit, pipfruit, stonefruit, and berries all depend on contracted hive placements. When colony losses run high, fewer hives are available. When treatment costs rise, currently $250 to $300 per hive per year just for maintenance, pollination contract prices follow. Growers absorb that cost with almost no visibility over the biological risk driving it.

Australia’s resistant mites are the canary

The main varroa treatments used in New Zealand are Apvar/Apitraz (59%), oxalic acid (53%), and Bayvarol (34%). The pyrethroids in that mix work today. But Australia confirmed pyrethroid-resistant varroa mites in NSW in January 2026, less than four years after first detection. Australia’s national varroa response programme closed before resistance was solved. There is no structural reason that resistance cannot cross the Tasman.

An industry that admits it cannot organise itself

Apiculture NZ chief executive Karin Kos has been blunt about the sector’s weakness: “The lack of industry organisation (and unity) to build a strong investment base that will support the ability to fully capitalise on potential growth in consumer demand, and be better prepared on the biosecurity front.”

That fragmentation is the real vulnerability. New Zealand manages 520,000 hives across 8,190 registered beekeepers. Total honey export revenue was $425 million in the year ended June 2023. But commercial beekeeper wellbeing is lower than other primary sector producers and the general population, and many operators have downsized or exited entirely.

The 2024 numbers are better. But better is not safe. When a $5 billion pollination pipeline depends on individual beekeepers winning a chemical arms race against a mite that is evolving faster than the industry can organise, the improvement is the high-water mark before a harder problem begins. Horticulture boards and grower co-operatives that treat pollination as a line item rather than a strategic risk are the ones who will be caught out first.

Sources

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