China’s latest rural policy blueprint shows Beijing shifting from output maximisation to risk control across its food supply chain, as trade volatility and climate exposure reshape procurement and production planning.
The State Council’s annual “No. 1 document,” released ahead of the next five-year plan, reiterates support for grain and oilseed production but places unusual emphasis on import diversification and productivity gains rather than acreage expansion.
The state media said the document was drafted against trade frictions with major suppliers including the United States and Canada, alongside slowing domestic growth.
Policymakers continue to flag import dependence as a structural constraint, particularly for oilseeds used in animal feed.
The document refers to “diversification” three times, compared with once in 2025, signalling a more explicit effort to reduce concentration risk in agricultural sourcing.
China’s push to broaden import channels could rebalance flows away from traditional exporters and toward developing markets, said Even Rogers Pay, director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.
“The increased emphasis on diversification tells us central policymakers increasingly view diversification as a strategy to make China’s food system more secure, and more resilient when shocks like natural disasters or trade wars occur,” Pay said.
The soybean section marks a change in emphasis since the plan calls for “consolidating and enhancing production capacity,” pointing to higher yields and quality improvements, Pay said.
China has steadily reduced reliance on U.S. soybeans since the first trade war. U.S. suppliers accounted for 15% of China’s soybean imports in 2025, down from 41% in 2016, according to official data.
The blueprint prioritises agri-tech investment over price subsidies, including support for biotech cultivation, AI-enabled farming, and specialised agricultural talent. It also calls for a crackdown on agricultural product smuggling and deeper participation in global food governance.+1
The authorities’ main goal is to stabilise pork, beef, and dairy markets after prolonged oversupply. Measures already rolled out include a quota system on beef imports and tariffs on EU dairy products.