New Zealand’s long-run growth record has come under renewed scrutiny, with Matthew Hooton cautioning that the country could drift towards the economic ranks of “Bulgaria, Russia and Kazakhstan”.
According to the per-capita GDP growth, he notes, “has stagnated at less than 0.5 per cent since 2008”, showcasing what he views as a sustained productivity problem rather than a temporary downturn.
“There never was a rock-star economy, except in the sense of a once-successful arthritic band loading themselves up on cocaine and methamphetamine to get through the nostalgia tour.” His argument is structural, not cyclical — productivity, he says, “sucks.” The critique challenges the narrative that New Zealand’s economic softness is merely the result of global shocks, instead pointing to nearly two decades of weak underlying performance.
The warning landed in the same week NZME posted a $13.1 million net profit for 2025, reversing a $16 million loss, and Sky TV reported a 77 per cent lift in half-year underlying net profit after tax to $19.3 million.
Sky’s revenue growth followed its $1 acquisition of TV3 and Three Now, now branded Sky Free, with the newly acquired assets contributing to reported gains. NZME’s operating revenue fell $5 million to $345 million, with publishing still declining despite cost reductions. Radio revenue lifted five per cent, though the wider market has been “effectively flatlining for more than a decade.”
Domestic advertising remains under pressure as global digital platforms capture market share. Industry data due this month is expected to confirm that most digital growth flows offshore. The platforms’ local contribution is “so small a forensic accountant would be required to find it in the spreadsheets.”
The financial return from digital platforms to New Zealand’s news sector is described in identical terms. Efforts to capture more of that revenue may support the industry, but expanding government funding raises constitutional questions about long-term independence and sustainability.