Crude oil prices rocketed more than 8% on Sunday evening as fears grew over supply risks from the U.S.-Iran conflict.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped $5.55, or over 8%, to $72.57 per barrel by 6:41 p.m. ET. Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed 9% or $6.54 to $79.41.
Iran, OPEC’s fourth biggest producer at 3.3 million barrels per day, faces leadership chaos. The Strait of Hormuz remains critical, handling 14 million barrels per day in 2025—one third of seaborne trade—mostly to Asia.
Tanker flows have halted amid caution. “Tankers are starting to build by the Strait of Hormuz, but nothing seems to be going through at the moment—tankers are definitely spooked,” said Kpler analyst Matt Smith.
“We view the pace of the rebound in traffic through Hormuz and the extent of Iranian retaliation as key for the oil price in the next few days,” UBS analysts led by Henri Patricot noted.
Barclays eyes Brent at $100 per barrel or higher. “How this ends is extremely uncertain at this point but in the meantime oil markets will have to face their worst fears,” said Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh. “The potential effect on oil markets is hard to overstate.”
President Trump vowed to press operations but signalled talks. “They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them,” he told The Atlantic. Missions are “ahead of schedule,” he said on CNBC.
Strikes or unrest could cripple Iran’s 1.5 million barrels per day exports, per EIA data, warned Lipow Oil Associates president Andy Lipow. OPEC+ spare capacity offers some buffer, but prolonged disruption risks sharp global price hikes.