OPEC+ is set to push forward with plans for a modest oil production increase in June, despite the ongoing U.S.-Iran war that has choked off key Gulf exports through the closed Strait of Hormuz, according to two sources familiar with the discussions.
The seven core members, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman, have reached an informal agreement to raise quotas by about 188,000 barrels per day next month. This would continue a pattern of gradual hikes for the third straight month, even after the United Arab Emirates quit the group earlier this week. The decision comes ahead of a policy meeting on Sunday, leaving OPEC+ with 21 members including Iran.
The conflict, which broke out on 28 February, has severely curtailed shipments from major producers Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the former UAE participant, the only nations with significant spare capacity before the fighting began. Iran, not part of Sunday’s talks, faces its own export squeeze from a U.S. blockade imposed in April.
Experts warn that any production boost will remain largely notional until the Hormuz strait reopens, and full supply chains could take weeks or months to recover. The disruption has sent prices soaring above $125 per barrel this week to four-year highs, stoking fears of jet fuel shortages within one to two months and fresh inflationary pressures worldwide.
The planned rise adjusts April’s 206,000 barrels per day increase to account for the UAE’s departure on 1 May, the sources said. They spoke on condition of anonymity as they are not allowed to speak to the media.
OPEC+ averaged 35.06 million barrels per day in March, down 7.70 million from February due to export woes, with Iraq and Saudi Arabia hit hardest and Russia trimming output after Ukrainian drone strikes.
Prices eased on Friday after Iran submitted an updated peace proposal via mediators in Pakistan. U.S. crude futures fell 3% to $101.94 per barrel, while Brent lost nearly 2% to $108.17.
The move signals OPEC+’s determination to stick to routine operations and ramp up supply once the war ends, sources said earlier. With U.S. reserves at multi-year lows, analysts foresee prolonged market turbulence absent a quick diplomatic breakthrough.