Authorities should take a hard look at the broader economic consequences when issuing widespread weather warnings, particularly the impact on local businesses from reduced consumer activity, according to a data analyst.
Data from Dot Loves Data shows just how widespread the disruption was on 12 April, when Cyclone Vaianu hit New Zealand.
Compared to an average Sunday in 2026 (excluding Easter Sunday), spending dropped sharply across affected regions. Northland saw a 48% fall, while Auckland was down 46.5%. Waikato recorded a 52.58% decrease, and the Bay of Plenty was hit hardest with a 68.32% drop. Gisborne spending declined by 51.6%, and Hawke’s Bay saw a 56.34% reduction.
“It’s highest in the areas most closely impacted by the Cyclone’s forecast path and decreases correspondingly the further each region is located,” Dot Loves Data director Justin Lester said.
He also noted the degree to which official warnings translate into behavioural change among the public.
“While we think as New Zealanders and human beings, that we’re all autonomous human beings, the reality is we’re actually more like sheep. If someone tells us to do something, we do it.
“And New Zealanders are compliant. They do tend to follow rules, not everybody, but most. So when we get a missive from the MetService or the government around a warning, we follow the rules.
“That’s great. It’s really good to see that, and people are prioritising life safety and family safety. But what we also have to understand for decision-makers is, look, these transactions, the level of spend has a massive decline. There are real-world implications, so it needs to make sure that it’s being done accurately and with a good level of information, and with due care for the potential impact on a local economy as well.”
Brad Olsen, chief executive at Infometrics, suggested there are limits to how directly weather warnings should be linked to economic outcomes, noting that poor weather itself would likely have reduced activity regardless.
“Yes we should always be careful with the alerts we put out. I don’t think anyone in MetService or whoever they are now is sitting there and thinking, you know what, I think it would be a fun day to just issue a red alert for lols.”
“So, you know, from that purpose, I don’t think that weather forecasters or those involved with emergency management should have much regard for economic trends there.”
“They shouldn’t ever have in their decision making, should I or shouldn’t I issue an alert based on what it might do to spending in the local area? I think that’s not their remit… but like I say, I’m not sure that it’s the alert itself or if it’s more the, there’s a correlation causation question there.”
Civil Defence Minister Mark Mitchell said weather warnings play a key role in helping both the public and businesses prepare and respond appropriately, while reducing avoidable harm.
“Warnings are advisory and do not impose any restrictions on people or businesses. It is the weather itself, not the warnings, that primarily causes the economic impacts.
“History shows that poor preparation, poor response, and poor decision-making in relation to severe weather events comes with significant economic and human cost. It is not surprising that economic activity slows down during periods of severe weather, but businesses are getting much better at planning ahead for weather-related disruption.”
As weather events are expected to become more frequent and severe, it is essential for organisations to have strong business continuity plans and adequate insurance in place to help them recover and maintain operations, Mitchell added.