New Zealand is seeking to carve out a path of exemption from a sweeping Chinese investigation into imported beef, as the world’s largest meat importer weighs protective measures that could disrupt global supply chains and unsettle diplomatic ties.
China’s Ministry of Commerce launched the investigation in late December 2024 in response to complaints from domestic farming groups who claim surging beef imports have severely undercut their profitability. Imports into China more than doubled over a five-year period, rising 106% between the first half of 2019 and the same period in 2024, while local farmers saw profit margins collapse from +20% to -12%.
The investigation, described by Chinese authorities as a safeguard measure, could result in tariffs, quotas, or other restrictions if it determines imported beef has caused or threatens to cause “serious injury” to China’s domestic industry.
Small Player, Same Scrutiny
Despite accounting for just 7% of China’s beef imports, New Zealand has found itself on the list of countries under scrutiny—alongside larger exporters such as Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, and the United States.
The New Zealand government has formally asked to be excluded from the probe, citing its longstanding Free Trade Agreement with China signed in 2008 and the cooperative nature of its export relationship. Officials argue Kiwi beef should not be treated the same as lower-cost, high-volume exports from South America.
Exporters were blindsided by the inclusion in the investigation, particularly after a year in which several New Zealand processing plants were newly approved to supply chilled beef to China.
“It has become a very good and interesting market for us as a country and we do it well because we work hard on it,” said Greenlea Premier Meats chief executive Tony Egan, who noted that the industry has invested heavily in meeting China’s regulatory and consumer requirements.
Rising Domestic Pressures in China
The Chinese investigation stems from a sharp increase in beef imports—rising from 20% to 31% of market share from 2019 to 2024—coinciding with a supply glut and a sluggish economy that has kept meat prices depressed.
Nine provincial agricultural associations and the China Animal Agriculture Association submitted the complaint that triggered the probe, asserting that “if appropriate measures are not taken in time, the amount of beef imports may increase further [and] production, operation and financial conditions of domestic industries may be further impacted.”
In 2024, China imported a record 2.87 million metric tons of beef, according to customs data. While no official reason was given, imports from seven specific plants in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Mongolia were suspended in March 2025—moves viewed by industry analysts as early warning shots to major exporters.
ANZCO’s general manager of sales and marketing, Rick Walker, noted the action had “all the appearances of a warning shot” and said the focus appeared to be on larger, cost-competitive suppliers. “If they are trying to send a message of support to their industry then they are hitting the right part of the world at the moment,” he said.
Global Stakes and Fairness Concerns
Beijing has pledged that the investigation will be “fair and objective,” according to the Ministry of Commerce. A hearing held on March 31 brought together around 180 representatives, including officials from major exporting nations, trade associations, and Chinese importers.
Still, exporters remain wary. The United States, which is already subject to a 10% retaliatory tariff, has seen new export registrations lapse. Brazil’s industry association, ABIEC, said the plants suspended last month had failed to meet certain registration requirements, but offered few details.
The probe is set to last eight months, though authorities have not ruled out an extension.
For New Zealand, the stakes are high. China was the second-largest market for Kiwi beef in 2024, taking $838 million worth of exports in the 10 months to October. Yet its share is in decline, with exporters shifting focus to the United States and other high-return markets.New Zealand officials and industry players are monitoring developments closely. “We have got our people there and they are keeping their ears to the ground,” said Walker, adding that exporters are prepared to adjust quickly if necessary.