Red meat exports jumped 23% in August, and special agricultural trade envoy Nathan Guy is not being modest about it. “We’re in pretty good shape,” he told Mike Hosking, pointing to the UK, China, the US and Europe all performing while two wars disrupt global shipping. Beef + Lamb New Zealand forecasts combined beef, lamb, mutton and wool receipts of $12.6 billion for 2026-27.
The interesting part is not that demand is strong. It is where the extra business is coming from.
A record built on price, not volume
The 2025/26 financial year delivered $13.2 billion in red meat exports, 21% up on the year before, according to the Meat Industry Association. That lifted the bar again after calendar 2025 set a then-record of $11.7 billion.
Look under the bonnet and volumes barely moved. Sheepmeat value rose 26% to $5.2 billion and beef rose 21% to $5.8 billion, with tonnage flat in both, while the US ($3.8 billion), China ($2.7 billion) and the EU ($1.9 billion) all grew. That is a sector earning more per kilo, which is exactly where a high-cost, grass-fed producer wants to be.
Australia’s loss is our gain
This year China tightened beef import quotas to protect its own farmers. New Zealand retains access for 105,000 tonnes of low-tariff beef and is unlikely to hit the ceiling. Australia was not so lucky. It breached its safeguard quota in mid-June, and its beef exports to China fell 71% month-on-month between May and June.
Chinese buyers did not stop eating beef. They went shopping elsewhere, and New Zealand beef imports into China rose 66% year-on-year.
That matters because China was not a sure thing. Beef + Lamb’s mid-year update flagged it as a challenging market, with consumers trading down to cheaper cuts, and showed the US, China, EU and UK splitting value roughly 34%, 16%, 16% and 9%. No single customer holds the whip hand. When one market wobbles, product moves.
Rabobank analyst Jen Corkran expects more reshuffling as a looming EU suspension of Brazilian beef redirects supply, but says “New Zealand is relatively well positioned given the diversity of its export portfolio and continued demand across major markets.”
Diversification is the business model
This is the free-trade argument playing out in real time. Protectionism in Beijing and Brussels is punishing the exporters most exposed to those rule changes. New Zealand, having spread its bets across multiple trade deals, catches the spillover. The sector is already pointing to the India-NZ free trade agreement as the next leg of that strategy, with Guy, as MIA independent chair, describing the operating environment as “complex and fast-moving”.
It is also a consistent story. Back in October 2025, Guy was warning of storm clouds including US tariffs of 15% while noting American demand for lean New Zealand beef was absorbing the hit. A year on, it still is.
The farmgate will feel less rosy
None of this means farmers are about to buy new utes. Beef + Lamb forecasts average sheep and beef farm profit before tax will fall 20% to $267,200 in 2026-27 as a stronger New Zealand dollar, rising costs and El Nino dry risk bite, though that remains well above the five-year average.
Farmers Weekly’s Sara Hilhorst summed up the tension: “There is strong global protein demand and historically high livestock prices on one side, against falling sheep numbers, increased costs, potentially drier conditions, and an unclear export market outlook on the other.” She rates US tariff unpredictability, “here today, gone tomorrow“, as the biggest risk, and warns that Brazil and Australia can supply at lower prices.
The window will not stay open forever
The competitive advantage of the past six months is partly borrowed from rivals’ misfortune. Australian and Brazilian beef will find new homes, some of them in New Zealand’s core markets, and price growth is likely to flatten. For processors, rural lenders and the regional businesses that ride on farm incomes, the message is to bank the strength now rather than extrapolate it.
But the structural lesson holds. A small exporter with broad market access and a premium product can turn other people’s trade wars into an opportunity. The countries leaning hardest on one customer are the ones currently writing the cheques.
Sources
- Newstalk ZB: “We’re in pretty good shape”: Red meat sector continue to surge as international exports flow (2026-09-29)
- Beef + Lamb NZ: New Season Outlook 2026-27 (2026-09)
- MIA: June red meat exports lift strongly, with annual exports also higher for 2025/26 (2026-08-05)
- MIA: New Zealand red meat exports reached record levels during 2025 (2026-02-13)
- The Post: Both pitfalls and positives for NZ beef farmers as geopolitics roils markets (2026-08-30)
- Rural News Group: Rabobank – China quotas, Brazil risk to reshape beef trade (2026-09-28)
- Beef + Lamb NZ: Quarterly Markets Update Q3 2025-26 (2026-07-31)
- The Post: Navigating evolving global markets (2026-09-22)
- NZ Herald: Mood of the Boardroom – NZ meat exports hit record demand but Nathan Guy warns of global risks (2025-10-01)
- Farmers Weekly: Sheep and beef outlook strong as margins tighten (2026-09-28)
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