NZ’s thriving film sector has been plunged into uncertainty following President Trump’s surprise announcement of a 100% tariff on all foreign-made films. The proposal, revealed in a series of social media posts and statements to the press, has alarmed industry professionals and government officials in New Zealand, where the screen sector generates an estimated $3.5 billion annually and relies heavily on American productions.
A Sudden Shift in the Global Script
Trump’s justification for the sweeping tariff centres on his claim that the U.S. film industry is in steep decline, losing ground to foreign nations offering “all sorts of incentives” to lure productions abroad. He framed the issue as one of national security, calling it a “concerted effort” by other countries to undermine Hollywood. “The Movie Industry in America is DYING a very fast death,” Trump declared on his Truth Social platform. This is “messaging and propaganda!” he wrote.
In his statements, Trump singled out foreign incentive programs, which include New Zealand’s 20–25% Screen Production Rebate, as examples of unfair competitive advantages that he intends to penalise.
The Immediate Impact on a Vulnerable Industry
The announcement has sent ripples through New Zealand’s creative sector. American productions contribute more than one-third of the country’s screen revenue, and major films like Avatar: The Way of Water, Deadpool and Wolverine, and the upcoming Minecraft Movie have all benefited from local tax incentives. According to the Ministry for Culture and Heritage, international productions accessing New Zealand’s rebate program spent an estimated $5.2 billion in the country between 2014 and 2022.
Industry groups and government officials have responded with caution and concern. SPADA (Screen Production and Development Association) president Irene Gardiner described the announcement as “quite confusing,” questioning whether it applies to U.S.-funded films shot in New Zealand or New Zealand-made films seeking distribution in the U.S. “[If it’s] taken to an extreme conclusion,” she warned, “it would have a massive effect on New Zealand and companies like Wētā Workshop.”
Government Response
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon acknowledged the seriousness of the situation but urged patience, citing the lack of policy detail. “It’s way too early,” he told reporters, noting that officials were still working with international partners to interpret the implications. “We’ve advocated strongly that we don’t believe tariffs is the way to go forward.”
Finance Minister Nicola Willis also highlighted the economic importance of U.S. productions, referencing recent projects like a Marvel film that spent $9 million in New Zealand and received a $2 million rebate. We want to see the film industry continue to “thrive,” she said.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins was more forceful in his response, urging the government to “vigorously oppose” the tariff, which he called “disastrous” for the economy and job market.
Industry at a Crossroads
With no official guidelines yet released on how the tariff would be enforced, industry stakeholders are left grappling with fundamental uncertainties. Gardiner poses the question: Would New Zealand productions like Tinā face tariffs when distributed in the U.S.? Would American-backed films made in New Zealand be taxed on release, or would production companies bear the burden?
Screen industry veteran John Barnett expressed scepticism about the feasibility of the plan, questioning how such a policy could be implemented without major disruption. “What is Trump going to do if M3GAN comes here and spends $200 million? Is he going to charge them $200 million?” he asked. “And who’s going to pay it?”
Beyond the immediate questions, the tariff has sparked broader concerns about the future of New Zealand’s position in the global film ecosystem. With the U.S. historically dominating the international box office and distribution, a punitive tariff could push producers to rethink shooting locations, and possibly look more seriously toward alternative markets in Europe and Asia.
A Precarious Future
Annie Murray, CEO of the New Zealand Film Commission, confirmed ongoing discussions with international partners but emphasised that the situation remains fluid. “We’re mindful … this is an evolving situation and it’s too early to speculate on what this could mean,” she said.
Despite reassurances from government officials, the announcement has shaken confidence across the sector. The prime minister’s praise of New Zealand as “the best place to make movies in the world” has done little to quell concerns in an industry where reputational strength and economic incentives go hand in hand.
As global markets react and legal challenges potentially loom, the local screen industry is bracing for what could be a protracted period of instability. Whether the tariff is ultimately enacted or moderated, the episode has already exposed the fragility of creative industries in a politically volatile era.