New Zealand has recorded a 2% drop in gross greenhouse gas emissions from 2022 to 2023, according to figures released by the Ministry for the Environment on 15 April. This marks the fourth consecutive year of emissions decline, driven by reduced livestock numbers and strong hydropower generation.
Climate Targets and Sectoral Shifts Driving Emissions Reduction
This progress aligns with New Zealand’s long-term goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, excluding biogenic methane, while fulfilling its commitments under the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The 2023 inventory reflects a wider national shift, shaped by economic restructuring and favourable natural conditions, including increased hydropower generation and fewer livestock.
Agriculture and Energy Sectors Show Improvement
Gross emissions in 2023 were 76.4 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent (Mt CO₂-e). The two main sectors, agriculture and energy, accounted for more than 90% of these emissions but also showed the most improvement.
Agriculture, responsible for 53.1% of gross emissions, fell by 2.2% due to lower livestock numbers and decreased limestone use. Meanwhile, energy emissions, which made up 37.8%, dropped by 0.2%, continuing a significant 8% decline from the previous year.
These reductions were aided by above-average rainfall that bolstered hydropower and by the continued impact of the closure of the Marsden Point oil refinery in 2022.
Forests Rebound as Significant Carbon Sinks
The land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector offset 26% of gross emissions, removing 20.2 Mt CO₂-e from the atmosphere. This rebound in net carbon removals came as less harvesting and deforestation occurred compared to prior years, reversing a long-term decline in forestry’s offset capacity since 2008.
Sectors Show Varied Results
While gross emissions have declined in recent years, they remain 13% above 1990 levels, with net emissions up 30%. Emissions per capita, however, have fallen by 26.4% since 1991, despite a 51% increase in population.
The dairy sector and road transport are the main contributors to emissions growth, rising by 8.6 and 5.9 Mt CO₂-e respectively. In contrast, emissions from sheep farming have dropped 46.7%, and the waste sector has seen an 11% reduction since 1990.
Gas Composition and Sectoral Exceptions
Methane made up 48.1% of emissions (CO₂-equivalent), followed by carbon dioxide (41.3%), nitrous oxide (9.1%), and refrigerants (1.5%) in 2023.
While most sectors showed improvement, domestic aviation emissions jumped by 24%, and road transport emissions increased by 2%, bucking the broader trend.
Policy, Technology, and Global Comparisons
David Frame, professor at the University of Canterbury, said the decline is part of a broader shift seen in developed countries.
“The downward trend is driven mainly by technological change and things like a price on emissions. The good thing is that we have a price on carbon that is politically uncontroversial. That helps a lot.”
“Specific policies such as cycle lanes and public transport expansion made only a marginal contribution.”
Frame noted that New Zealand’s emissions trajectory mirrors gains in other developed nations, though these are often offset globally by increases in the developing world.
New Zealand’s path to 2050 depends on keeping up renewable energy, scaling low-emission tech, and policy follow-through. A 42% glacier ice loss since 2005 highlights the urgency.