New Zealand’s economy recorded a modest but positive expansion in the final quarter of 2025, with gross domestic product rising 0.2% in the three months to December, according to official data released by Stats NZ.
While this was slightly below some economists’ forecasts — the country’s big banks had predicted 0.3% to 0.4% growth, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand projected 0.5% — the figures still mark the first annual economic growth since the September 2024 year-end.
“GDP has now risen in three of the last four quarters,” Stats NZ general manager and macroeconomic spokesperson Jason Attewell said.
Labour’s finance spokeswoman Barbara Edmonds dismissed the 0.2% growth as a “failure,” despite official data showing the economy is moving in the right direction. Her critique overlooks that unemployment and cost pressures are stabilising after years of high inflation and interest rates.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis highlighted that the economy grew 1.1% over the final six months of 2025, noting that global instability – particularly the Middle East conflict – complicates forecasting but has not derailed growth.
“While GDP data was volatile throughout 2025, the New Zealand economy picked up noticeably in the second half of the year, growing 1.1% over the final six months after being relatively flat over the first half of the year,” she said.
“The conflict [in the Middle East] will have an impact on the economy, but we are starting from a much stronger position now than was the case in the past few years, when high inflation and high interest rates were weighing down on people.
Willis cautioned that the quarterly numbers are “backward‑looking” and that current disruptions to oil markets and trade — excluded from these figures — are fresh factors shaping 2026’s outlook.
“I’ll just be frank, that’s very backward-looking data.”
“We’re now in a new world.”
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, back from a Pacific trip, echoed that preparedness for global shocks remains a priority, with officials tasked with planning for potential fuel supply and economic pressures over the coming weeks.