Finance Minister Nicola Willis assures New Zealanders that the nation maintains roughly seven weeks’ worth of fuel reserves.
Willis points out that fuel shipments are still arriving, and approximately 300 million litres are currently stored at Marsden Point. However, even before New Zealand completely “runs out” of fuel, diesel shortages could cause economic harm.
Willis made a visit to the Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited facility at Marsden Point as petrol prices surged past $3 a litre in many regions of the country, a jump driven by supply disruption linked to the recent conflict involving the United States and Israel and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
She stated that the government is exploring targeted support for households before May’s budget but dismissed widespread fuel tax reductions, arguing they would not benefit those who need it most.
The more urgent concern is the availability of diesel. Willis cautioned that a shortage of diesel would impact thousands of jobs, noting its critical role in freight, logistics, heavy machinery, and supply chains.
“Diesel is literally the lifeblood of the economy,” economist Shamubeel Eaqub said.
Eaqub cautioned that, even with sufficient overall fuel supplies, disruptions in distribution could strand trucks, freight, and livestock.
At the petrol pumps, pressure is mounting. Eaqub noted that current spot prices in Singapore and Korea suggest petrol could approach $3.80 a litre, while Infometrics’ Gareth Kiernan indicated that $4 for 91‑octane fuel is becoming increasingly likely.
The Greens have proposed supporting National on a fuel relief plan that would provide free public transport, targeted payments for low-income and rural New Zealanders—including those receiving benefits—and a windfall tax on fuel companies.
The government is also advancing a longer-term strategy, supporting a $110 million expansion of EV chargers as fluctuating fuel prices spark renewed interest in moving away from petrol and diesel.
Even if a ceasefire were reached immediately, both economists noted that disrupted supply chains would take time to stabilise, with the most severe impact expected around May or June.