A new study published in the New Zealand Medical Journal states that New Zealand’s diabetes crisis is set to worsen, with a 90% rise in cases projected by 2044. The increase, driven by obesity and broader social health issues, threatens to place unsustainable pressure on the country’s healthcare resources.
A Growing Diabetes Crisis
According to the study, by 2044, more than half a million New Zealanders will have diabetes, with the heaviest burden falling on Pacific communities. The prevalence of diabetes among Pacific females is expected to soar to 17%.
While an ageing population is part of the problem, obesity trends, driven by unhealthy food environments and limited access to nutritious food, are the key contributors.
Sir Collin Tukuitonga, President of the New Zealand College of Public Health Medicine, warned that the “massive increase in the future burden of diabetes threatens to swamp our health services, which are already stretched to breaking point.” He urged policymakers to act swiftly, stressing that “decision makers grappling with how to ensure our health system is sustainable and effective must take serious note of this study.”
The Economic and Healthcare Impact
The economic toll of diabetes on New Zealand is staggering, with type 2 diabetes currently costing the country an estimated NZ$2 billion annually. Projections suggest this could rise to NZ$3.5 billion over the next two decades, adding further strain to an already stressed healthcare system.
Diabetes, a complex disease that affects multiple systems, requires intervention at all stages of care.
Experts warn that without immediate preventive action, the escalating prevalence will burden general practitioners, hospitals, and specialists. “Failing to act now will lead to a crisis that New Zealand’s health infrastructure may not be able to handle.”
Experts Call for Bold Policy Changes
Health experts are demanding immediate government action to prevent diabetes and manage obesity. Tukuitonga and other researchers strongly support policy interventions, including:
- Taxing sugary drinks to discourage excessive sugar consumption
- Restricting the marketing of unhealthy foods to children to protect vulnerable population
- Improving access to affordable, nutritious food to address inequities in food environments
“We must improve our food environments by policies such as taxing sugary drinks, restricting marketing of unhealthy food to children, and improving access to nutritious, locally produced food, coupled with other population-level interventions to more effectively manage and control diabetes,” Tukuitonga emphasised.
The Global Diabetes Crisis
New Zealand is not alone in facing a diabetes crisis. Globally, the number of adults with diabetes has surpassed 800 million, a fourfold increase since 1990, according to a recent WHO and NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) report.
“We have seen an alarming rise in diabetes over the past three decades, which reflects the increase in obesity, compounded by the impacts of the marketing of unhealthy food, a lack of physical activity, and economic hardship,” said WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
The report also highlights the urgent issue of treatment gaps, especially in low- and middle-income countries, where 450 million adults were left untreated in 2022. This emphasises the need for better healthcare policies and preventive solutions worldwide.
What’s Next for New Zealand?
New Zealand faces a critical turning point as global organisations push for stronger diabetes prevention efforts. The WHO’s Global Diabetes Compact, launched in 2021, sets ambitious targets for reducing diabetes risk and ensuring equitable access to treatment, including the goal of achieving good glycaemic control for 80% of diagnosed patients by 2030.
“The evidence is clear: diabetes is surging, and we cannot afford to wait.”