New Zealand must rethink its approach to using agricultural land in order to boost farmers’ productivity and economic returns, a Lincoln University report has found.
The report, titled The Future Use of Land and How to Fund It, a joint initiative between ASB and Lincoln University’s Centre of Excellence in Transformative Agribusiness, demonstrates how optimising land use throughout the food and fibre sector could substantially increase New Zealand’s GDP while simultaneously providing social and environmental advantages.
The report examines four potential futures for New Zealand, with each scenario concentrating on a single key factor affecting the food and fibre sector—such as greenhouse gas emissions targets or the government’s aim to double export values—and amplifies these factors to their extremes, highlighting the urgent need for change.
The research outlines seven transformational pathways, including diversifying farm systems to create multiple revenue streams, expanding horticultural production, and unlocking the potential of underutilised Māori land. It shows how improved land use combined with innovative funding can generate sustainable value throughout rural New Zealand.
Researchers have also created a land transition model that offers land-use insights at the regional level. Agricultural consultants can utilise this model to guide farmers in exploring potential future pathways.
“The food and fibre sector has always been a key driver of our economy, yet many producers operate on slim margins,” ASB’s General Manager Rural Banking, Aidan Gent, said.
“We speak with farmers every week who are deeply committed to their land and legacy but grapple with viability, as they’re not getting the returns to operate sustainably into the future.”
Meanwhile, Alan Renwick from Lincoln University states that improving land use efficiency by just 10% could generate an additional $10 billion in economic value if implemented correctly, with the potential to achieve this—or even more—within the next 5 to 7 years.
“The challenge facing the food and fibre sector is how to meet economic, environmental and social goals simultaneously,” he said.
“This requires practical, future-focused solutions – like integrating horticulture into traditional pastoral systems, developing on-farm processing to capture more value locally, or growing Māori agribusinesses around high-value niche products like manuka honey or native botanicals.”
“We know these innovations are happening in pockets across Aotearoa – some standout out examples are included in our report as case studies – but we need to see this kind of transformation at scale.”