New Zealand’s post-Covid immigration trends are witnessing a dramatic shift, with a sharp decline in migrants from the United Kingdom and South Africa, once key sources.
Emerging from this change is India, now leading in work visa arrivals. This transformation is reshaping New Zealand’s migration profile, raising questions about what is driving the change.
India Overtakes Traditional Markets as Leading Source
According to Statistics NZ’s data for the year ending October 2024, the UK and South Africa, which historically vied for first place as the largest source markets, have slipped to fourth and fifth, respectively. Migrant arrivals from these countries have dropped by about a third compared to pre-Covid levels. India has climbed from seventh place in 2019 to first, with a surge in arrivals reflecting both business opportunities and policy shifts.
Immigration adviser David Cooper attributes this decline in traditional markets to a range of factors, including restrictive skilled migrant residence policies and a ban on foreign house buyers.
“They’re not coming from some of those traditional markets, the UK being the most obvious one,” Cooper said, emphasising the impact of these policies on migrant preferences.
The decline in interest from the US, though less dramatic, further underscores the challenges facing New Zealand. As Iain MacLeod, an immigration adviser operating on both sides of the Tasman, put it, “We’ve made it too hard, we’ve made it too risky, and in October last year, we’ve made it even more expensive in terms of visa fees.”
Australia Gaining Ground While Aotearoa Struggles
While New Zealand struggles to attract migrants from its traditional markets, Australia appears to be excelling. Australia experienced a 173% increase in arrivals from the UK and a 46% rise from South Africa between June 2020 and June 2024.The arrivals from these countries to New Zealand fell sharply by comparison.
Experts point to Australia’s lenient permanent residency policies and streamlined migration processes as key factors in its success.
Katy Armstrong, a British immigration adviser, highlights Australia’s appeal: “My nieces and nephews see Aussie as the land of good weather and opportunity plus better wages than at home or here.”
MacLeod echoed this sentiment, criticising New Zealand’s system for requiring migrants to work for up to three years before achieving residency.
“Come here and get a job in a really soft labour market, or sit in Johannesburg, [and] prepare your permanent residency visa for Australia. No job is required. Thanks very much for the same skill set,” he noted.
India’s Growing Influence and Its Effects on New Zealand
India’s surge as a leading source market reflects both global trends and local shifts. MacLeod suggested that the increase might be tied to new English language requirements, which drove a wave of applications earlier in 2024. Furthermore, India’s business-oriented migrants are creating ripple effects in their communities, driving further opportunities. Armstrong noted, “Because Indians are business-oriented, they create job opportunities for other Indians.”
Cooper also highlighted the broader implications of New Zealand’s declining presence in traditional markets, pointing to a lack of cohesive promotional strategies.
“The Aussies are really powerful at doing that, but we don’t do a good job of marketing,” he said. Cooper suggested combining government promotional budgets under Tourism NZ to enhance global visibility.
“I’m sure they could get New Zealand back on the map.”
The Long-Term Impact of Shifting Immigration Trends
The shift in immigration trends has far-reaching implications for New Zealand’s labour market and economic growth. Skilled migrants play a vital role in filling critical gaps, yet the current policies may be deterring them. MacLeod observed that the country’s new points system, introduced in 2023, has excluded entire skill sets such as welders and air-conditioning technicians, making Australia a more attractive option.
Cooper stressed the need for New Zealand to adapt its policies to remain competitive. “We’re selling ourselves short,” he said, pointing to the missed opportunities in promoting New Zealand as a destination.
The changing dynamics of New Zealand’s immigration profile suggest a pressing need for policy recalibration. While India’s rise presents fresh opportunities, the retreat of traditional markets like the UK and South Africa exposes weaknesses in the country’s current strategies. “People would have to be ‘nuts’ to choose NZ,” as MacLeod starkly put it.