The New START agreement, the last major pact limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, expires today without replacement, intensifying concerns over an escalating arms competition between the superpowers.
Signed in Prague in 2010, this treaty followed the 1991 START I deal between the United States and the Soviet Union, which cut deployed strategic warheads to fewer than 6,000 per side and eliminated about 80 per cent of those weapons by 2001.
New START limited each nation to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads, 700 delivery systems such as missiles and bombers, and 155 installed launchers. Verification relied on data exchanges, notifications, and facility inspections, though Russia suspended formal compliance in 2023 over the Ukraine conflict while both sides reportedly stuck to limits informally.
This lapse compounds the breakdown of post-Cold War safeguards. The U.S. left the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces agreement in 2019, and Open Skies in 2020. Russia abandoned the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty, leaving no bilateral constraints on nuclear forces.
Both nations pursue extensive nuclear modernisation. Russia develops Poseidon, a nuclear-powered underwater torpedo, and Burevestnik, a nuclear-powered cruise missile, to counter defences. The U.S. advances hypersonic weapons and proposes a “Golden Dome” shield for North America. China, France, and the UK also expand capabilities, complicating future talks.
Pope Leo urged renewal yesterday, stating the world situation “calls for doing everything possible to avert a new arms race.”
Britain’s former armed forces chief, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, warned last year that these frameworks “now risks unravelling.” He called their erosion “one of the most dangerous aspects of our current global security,” alongside “the increasing prominence of nuclear weapons.”
Dmitry Medvedev, who signed New START as Russia’s president, said its end should “alarm everyone.”
President Donald Trump sounded unperturbed, telling the New York Times last month, “If it expires, it expires. We’ll just do a better agreement.” The U.S. seeks China’s involvement in any successor, while Russia demands France and the UK join.
Russia floated a one-year extension last year, but talks stalled despite a Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska. With no immediate negotiations and U.S. lawmakers pushing arsenal growth, analysts predict unchecked expansion and higher miscalculation risks.