New Zealand logistics giant Mainfreight has become one of the early casualties of renewed global trade tensions, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs begin to reshape international commerce. Analysts at Forsyth Barr have slashed the company’s 12-month target price by 8.8%, citing the growing economic strain from both enacted and threatened U.S. tariffs, and a downturn in global freight activity.
A fresh round of car tariffs, set to take effect on April 3, will see a 25% levy applied to global vehicle imports and key automobile parts, with no exemptions. Trump has also indicated further “reciprocal tariffs” will be announced in early April.
While New Zealand is not directly in the firing line, the effects of the trade war are already being felt. Forsyth Barr analysts Andy Bowley and Hugh Lockwood say Mainfreight’s near-term outlook has deteriorated, with “the cyclical demand backdrop… now firmly on a negative tack, given declining consumer confidence.”
Mainfreight’s earnings growth for FY26 is now projected to be significantly lower than market expectations. While consensus forecasts suggest a 15% rise in pre-tax profit, Forsyth Barr’s revised estimate pegs growth at just 6%. “This backdrop suggests earnings growth in FY26 will be harder to achieve than current market expectations imply,” Bowley and Lockwood said.
They noted that while Mainfreight operates in “defensive” sectors such as food, pharmaceuticals, and healthcare, it remains exposed to macroeconomic shifts and the overall health of global trade. Declining sea freight rates are also pressuring margins, falling from levels 210% above pre-COVID averages earlier this year to just 50% above.
Trade Minister Responds
Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay acknowledged the risks facing New Zealand exporters and said the government is actively engaged with U.S. counterparts to mitigate potential fallout. Trump has signalled that tariffs on “external” agricultural products will begin on April 2, prompting concern for key New Zealand sectors including beef, dairy, and wine.
Speaking to RNZ earlier this month, McClay confirmed the government is “not sitting back waiting to see” and is working through diplomatic channels to gather intelligence and make New Zealand’s case. “We buy and sell similar amounts to each other… so we want to make sure [the U.S.] is reminded of that,” he said.
McClay indicated he hopes to speak directly with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in the coming weeks, while New Zealand’s Washington embassy continues to lobby on behalf of exporters.
In 2024, New Zealand exported $9 billion worth of goods to the U.S.—its second-largest trading partner—including $2.6 billion in meat products, $1.2 billion in dairy, and over $700 million in wine. The U.S. has also overtaken China as New Zealand’s top destination for meat exports.
While McClay stopped short of committing to retaliatory measures, he said all options were on the table. “We’re not ruling it in at this stage but we’re getting advice on everything available to us,” he told the programme,” he told RNZ’s Morning Report.
Investors and Exporters on Edge
The impact of the trade war has extended beyond Mainfreight. Analysts warn that other New Zealand companies reliant on stable trade flows could also come under pressure if tariff volatility continues.
Forsyth Barr notes that Trump’s unpredictable use of tariffs as a negotiation tool—often imposed and lifted within days—has created an environment of heightened uncertainty. Businesses are struggling to plan and invest, while consumers are likely to become more cautious if economic conditions worsen.
“Uncertainty over tariffs could be nearly as damaging as tariffs themselves,” the firm said in a recent market note.
Labour’s trade spokesperson Damien O’Connor echoed the concern. “We’re a trading nation, we rely entirely on our ability to export,” he said. “[Trump’s] interventions across the globe… mean that there will be disruption, and we will be affected by that in a large or small way—we don’t quite know yet.”