U.S. President Donald Trump aims to tap Venezuela’s vast crude reserves—put at 303 billion barrels, almost 20 per cent of the global total—following his administration’s seizure of former leader Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026.
Venezuelan production lingers at 900,000 to 1.1 million barrels per day. Exports have risen to 800,000–966,000 barrels per day since late 2025, recovering from December’s 498,000 but far from past peaks.
Parliament in Venezuela has eased rules for foreign energy investors. U.S. companies still face decayed facilities and a dearth of experts amid a migrant exodus of nearly eight million, including PDVSA engineers.
Output has plunged from 3.5 million barrels per day pre-1999 due to chronic neglect and diluent shortages, leaving over 17 million barrels stranded in tankers.
Revival demands billions—Trump seeks $100 billion from U.S. firms—likely over a decade in a glutted market.
“We’re going to be extracting numbers in terms of oil like few people have seen,” Trump said after mid-January talks with energy chiefs.
Reserves top Saudi Arabia’s 267 billion on paper, but 2023 exports yielded just $4 billion against Riyadh’s $181 billion. Heavy, sour crude resists processing.
Chávez-era changes inflated estimates from 80 billion to 300 billion at $100+ prices; today’s $65 levels and Rystad’s 29 billion recoverable tally raise doubts.
William Jackson of Capital Economics questioned the figures.
“There was a big step—jump—that people have questioned,” Jackson said. “But now the world is awash with oil and it’s not clear that the same calculations still apply.”
“In Venezuela, you’re dealing with equipment that’s been degraded by many years of neglect,” he added. “Ten to 15 years ago, Venezuela was producing 1.5 million barrels a day more than it does today.”
U.S. firms recall 2007 nationalisations hitting ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, with $8.7 billion in unpaid awards. Interim boss Delcy Rodríguez oversees “colectivos” militias, and no security pledges emerged from Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s Caracas visit.
ExxonMobil deems it “uninvestable.” Shareholder returns need higher prices. Thomas Watters of S&P Global Ratings underscored this.
“At the end of the day, oil and gas companies have to deliver value to shareholders,” he said. “They have very good managers. You can build anything, as long as you can pay for it. But you need an oil price that makes that worthwhile. Unless you can generate sufficient money to justify that, it’s very difficult to see the industry coming back.”
A boom might pinch Canadian heavy oil but poses limited threat. Prices could dip only massively.
“It depends on the scale at which it happens,” Jackson said. “The situation is very fluid, very opaque, and there’s a big geopolitical angle. We’re in the early stages where Venezuelan production is concerned.”