Supporters of Sir Keir Starmer have made it clear he will resist any attempts by Labour MPs to challenge his leadership, with fears that such a move could come soon after the forthcoming Budget in two weeks.
There is mounting concern among his allies about behind-the-scenes plotting to depose him, with speculation focusing on close cabinet members like Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, as well as figures including Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and backbenchers such as Louise Haigh.
One minister stressed, “He will fight this,” referencing Labour’s heavy loss in the 2021 Hartlepool by-election that nearly prompted Sir Keir’s resignation. “This is not a Hartlepool moment. He is one of only two living Labour leaders to have won a general election. It would be madness to challenge him after 17 months.”
While Labour expects poor results in May’s devolved and local elections, some within the party believe leadership change cannot wait until then. Downing Street is acutely aware of this threat, with one senior MP warning that waiting risks losing valuable activists and councillors.
Streeting’s ambitions are viewed with suspicion by the prime minister’s loyalists, although his spokesperson denied all leadership speculation, stating his focus remains firmly on reducing NHS waiting times, recruiting GPs, and rebuilding the health service that personally saved his life.
A government insider lamented that Downing Street has entered a “full bunker mode,” unnecessarily turning on loyal cabinet members amid a pattern of internal briefings against ministers including Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, Lucy Powell, and now Wes Streeting. “A circular firing squad won’t help the government out of the hole it’s in,” they warned.
Prime minister supporters caution MPs about the risks of a leadership contest, describing it as a path to internal chaos similar to the Conservatives’ final years in office, and a move that could unsettle markets and damage the prime minister’s ties with President Trump.
Despite this, some ministers acknowledge the party’s difficult position. One remarked, “He [Starmer] is hated out there. It’s worse than under Corbyn. I don’t see how this is sustainable until May.”
Polling reflects Sir Keir’s unpopularity, with Labour’s support falling to around 20%, making him possibly the most unpopular modern British prime minister.
One cabinet minister summed up the mood: “Some see the choice as between this Labour government and perfection, but the real choice is between us and Reform.”
Reform UK’s rise has shifted Downing Street’s focus, with the prime minister viewing Nigel Farage and his party as the greatest electoral threat. While Sir Keir believes he can defeat Farage, many colleagues remain doubtful.