Photo Source: Markus Spiske
The New Zealand Government has been urged by the Climate Change Commission (CCC) to revamp its climate strategy by adopting a net negative emissions target by 2050, replacing the current net zero goal.
The recommendations, presented on 5 December 2024 by the CCC , aim to position New Zealand as a global leader in combating climate change while addressing evolving scientific understanding and international commitments.
Bold New Targets to Reduce Emissions
The CCC’s proposal centres on setting a target of reducing emissions by an equivalent of 20 million tonnes of CO2 beyond gross levels by 2050. Chair Rod Carr emphasised the need for decisive action, stating that delay is costly, both environmentally and economically. The CCC also called for stricter biogenic methane reduction goals, recommending a minimum cut of 35% by 2050, compared to the current target of 24%.
Additionally, the commission advised incorporating emissions from international aviation and shipping into the country’s ledger, a move that would increase transparency and align with international practices. These sectors currently contribute approximately 9% of New Zealand’s net domestic emissions. The CCC argued this adjustment was both “feasible” and critical to meeting global standards.
Addressing Global Climate Commitments
New Zealand’s targets were reevaluated in light of insufficient global action to limit warming to 1.5°C, a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement. Carr underscored the urgency: “The purpose is not to do as little as possible, as late as possible, and it is now emergingly clear that delay is costly.”
The commission also noted that other countries, including Australia and members of the European Union, have adopted more ambitious approaches. This international context spurred the CCC’s recommendations for New Zealand to step up its contributions.
“Research has found that greater impacts are being felt at lower temperature levels than previously expected,” the report noted, highlighting how climate science continues to evolve.
An Achievable Path Forward?
The CCC outlined a proposed emissions budget of 160 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (mtCO2e) for the period 2036–2040, averaging 32 mtCO2e annually. This target was described as both “ambitious and achievable,” with expected long-term benefits outweighing upfront costs. New Zealand’s gross emissions are projected to fall to 50 mtCO2e by 2040, a 37% reduction from 2022 levels, supported by increased carbon removals through forest expansion.
Chief Executive Jo Hendy emphasised the economic benefits of the plan: “Our modelling shows that investment up front now would more than pay for itself over the long term.”
Diverse Opinions on Methane Reductions
The recommendations sparked debate, particularly regarding methane emissions. While the CCC proposed raising the reduction minimum to 35%, an independent panel commissioned by the government suggested a lower range of 14% to 24%. Labour MP Megan Woods argued that softer methane targets would place undue pressure on other sectors, saying, “If we were to reduce that methane target to, say, 15%, then the pressure would come on other sectors.”
Carr addressed concerns about balancing methane cuts with other options, such as increased afforestation or reliance on international carbon offsets. “Neither of these are palatable,” he noted during parliamentary scrutiny.
Balancing Ambition and Feasibility
The CCC’s recommendations have sparked mixed reactions. Critics, including ACT Party’s Simon Court, expressed concerns about economic costs.
“Do you think there’s a risk that with some of these very challenging targets being announced here … we’re actually overshooting, and there’s a risk of actually incurring a whole lot more cost for our economy than we need to?” Court asked during the discussions.
Carr countered that investments in renewable energy would enhance energy independence and reduce reliance on long supply chains. He also stressed that such investments are vital for achieving climate goals and avoiding long-term damage.
A Crime Against Humanity
Carr delivered a pointed warning: “Those who continue to promote the combustion of fossil fuels in the open air without permanent carbon capture and storage are, in my view, committing a crime against humanity.”
His remarks encapsulate the urgency and high stakes of the proposed climate reforms. The New Zealand government now faces critical decisions about whether to adopt the CCC’s ambitious recommendations and the broader implications of leading in the global fight against climate change.