New Zealand’s property market experienced an uptick in November, marking its third consecutive month of price increases.
Trade Me Property’s Customer Director, Gavin Lloyd, reported that in November 2024, the average asking price for properties in New Zealand reached $854,900.
This represents a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, which is a more moderate rise compared to October, “which was up more than 3% in September.”
Regional Highlights
The West Coast led the charge with the largest increase of 4.8%, followed by Nelson/Tasman at 2.6%. Both Northland and Marlborough saw gains of 2.2%, while Auckland’s average asking price rose by 1.4%, returning above the $1 million mark that it had crossed in October.
Some regions faced declines in property prices. Gisborne experienced the most significant drop at -3.3%, followed by Hawke’s Bay with a decrease of -1.1% and Otago at -0.7%.
“If we take a year-on-year view of prices, it’s very much a tale of two halves, with five of the six South Island regions Trade Me Property monitors showing positive price movement, including growth of more than 10% on the West Coast, where the average asking price now sits at $517,700. Nelson/Tasman is the exception, which is down 1.9% to $833,950,” Lloyd said.
Supply and Demand Factors
Lloyd noted that the relatively modest month-on-month increases in November, along with declines in certain regions, can be attributed to a surge in property supply, which has reached an all-time high.
“Nationwide, the number of properties for sale was up 18% year-on-year in November, with each of the 15 regions Trade Me Property monitors showing listings growth both month-on-month and compared to the same time last year.”
Several regions came out at the forefront of supply growth, including Wellington and Gisborne, both showing an increase of 32% compared to last November, followed closely by Hawkes Bay at 31% and Otago at 27%.
House Pricing Forecast in 2025
NZ chief economist Mike Jones predicts a 7% increase in house prices for 2025. Key factors driving this include declining mortgage rates and reduced economic pressures.
“We see the cycle turning into the new year, delivering a lift in house prices of around 7% over calendar 2025,” Jones emphasised.
BNZ anticipates that short-term mortgage rates will continue to decline into 2025, potentially falling into the 6% range. However, the outlook for longer-term rates remains uncertain, as inflation risks and global factors introduce variability.