One mega-deal, five months of chaos
Warner Bros Discovery shareholders voted to approve Paramount Skydance’s takeover on 23 April, ending a five-month bidding war that reshaped the global media landscape. The combined entity is valued at US$110 billion (NZ$183.2 billion), including roughly US$29 billion in debt, and will unite HBO, CNN, CBS, Nickelodeon, the DC Universe, Harry Potter, Mission Impossible and SpongeBob under one roof.
The saga began in December 2024 when Netflix launched an US$83 billion bid at US$27.75 per share. Paramount countered three days later, eventually pushing to US$31 per share. Warner Bros’ own board initially branded the offer “the largest leveraged buyout in history” and warned the extraordinary debt “heighten the risk of failure to close.” Netflix ultimately declined to match, and the deal was signed.
Oracle billionaire Larry Ellison largely bankrolled his son David’s play, supplemented by sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Paramount will also cover the US$2.8 billion termination fee Warner Bros owes Netflix for walking away.
Netflix lost the bid but might have won the war
Paramount shares jumped more than 20% on the announcement. Netflix rose nearly 14%. The market read Netflix’s retreat as discipline, not defeat. As HSBC analyst Mohammed Khallouf put it, Netflix is now “free to refocus on its business, while its closest competitors grapple with long and distracting regulatory approval and merger integration processes.”
Had Netflix prevailed, it would have controlled roughly 43% of global streaming subscribers, around 400 million worldwide. Instead, its two biggest streaming rivals are now locked into a multi-year integration while Netflix keeps building. The shareholder vote, as Yahoo Finance noted, was “step nine of approximately 47” in the approval process, with UK and EU regulators likely to extract concessions over 12 to 18 months.
Fewer platforms, higher prices, less leverage
Enders Analysis TV analyst Tom Harrington frames the consumer impact plainly: “There’d be just less competition. The ability there would be to charge a bit more.” The two streaming services New Zealand advertisers could use as alternatives to Netflix, HBO Max and Paramount+, are becoming one.
The timing is brutal for local media. New Zealand’s digital advertising market grew 12% to $2.967 billion, with video surging 27% to $653.8 million. But that growth is flowing offshore. Free-to-air TV ad spend fell 27.9% in December 2025 year-on-year, and the full-year NZ media agency market contracted 1.6% to $1.09 billion. Streaming already reaches 56% of New Zealanders versus 47% for linear TV. The crossover happened and nobody rang the bell.
NZ content producers lose a buyer
New Zealand’s screen sector contributes $1.1 billion to GDP from $3.0 billion in output. Warner Bros invested over NZ$4 million in local post-production and special effects in 2025. Those numbers matter in a small economy.
AUT lecturer Rachel Daniels is direct about the risk: “Right now, New Zealand producers can pitch to a range of international networks. But if that pool shrinks, there are fewer commissioners, fewer buyers and fewer distribution options.” She warns the deal may “leave local broadcasters struggling to hold on to audiences” in an already fragile market. Consolidation after Disney’s Fox acquisition resulted in fewer films being made, and this deal follows the same playbook.
University of Auckland media professor Annie Goldson draws the broader pattern, pointing to Jeff Bezos buying the Washington Post as evidence that billionaire media ownership “could well see journalists fired” and reduce opportunities for diverse reportage.
Plan around fewer options, not more
The deal closes, if it closes, in Q3 2026. Regulatory fights in London and Brussels will grind on through most of that period. But the direction of travel is already locked in. Ad dollars are migrating to offshore platforms that are consolidating into fewer, larger, less competitive entities with no local footprint and no particular reason to prioritise New Zealand. TVNZ’s $327 million in annual revenue and Sky’s roughly one million subscribers are rounding errors in a US$110 billion media empire.
New Zealand media buyers, content producers and advertisers should not wait for the regulatory outcome. The structural shift is here. Plan for a world with two or three global content gatekeepers, rising platform ad rates, and shrinking local alternatives. Nostalgia for the old media landscape is not a strategy.
Sources
- RNZ: Warner Bros signs US$110 billion deal with Paramount (2025-04-23)
- NZ Herald: Paramount Skydance to buy Warner Bros Discovery in $183b media mega-deal (2025-04-23)
- NZ Herald: Warner Bros dismisses latest Paramount bid as inadequate (2025-04-14)
- Yahoo Finance: The Warner Bros. Shareholder Vote? That’s the Easy Part (2025-04-23)
- The Conversation: How NZ streaming costs and choices could change after the epic Netflix-Paramount battle for Warner Bros (2025-04-23)
- NZCity: What the Warner Bros deal could mean for streaming, cinemas and news (2025-04-23)
- IAB NZ: Q4 CY 2025 Digital Advertising Revenue Report (2025)
- Comms Council NZ: Standard Media Index – Advertising market update (2025)
- AUT News: Netflix-Paramount battle for Warner Bros (2025-04-23)
- Debate Magazine: The Global Impacts of the Paramount-Warner Bros. Deal – Including for New Zealand (2025-04-23)
- Wifi Talents: New Zealand Media Industry Statistics (2025)