The online casino market isn’t open yet, but the marketing has started. Newsroom reports that a company behind two prospective licensees emailed the publication directly pitching a sponsored content partnership, months before any licensed operator can legally trade.
That is not illegal, and it is not surprising. It is a clear signal of where things are heading. Commercial money is moving faster than regulatory readiness, and the most important gap in the rulebook, how much advertising 15 operators can collectively push at New Zealanders, remains unfilled.
The land-grab has a price tag
The pitch follows the announcement this month of 11 successful bidders for the 15 available licences. According to the Problem Gambling Foundation, the final auction price reached $15 million per licence.
Operators paying that much need to recover it fast, and the prize is substantial. In 2025, the Department of Internal Affairs estimated the existing offshore market at $1.36 billion, with spend growing 10.5% year-on-year to September 2025 across roughly 360,000 customers. The same report found the top 15 merchants already held 82.5% of the market.
In other words, the market is concentrated, growing and about to be reshuffled. Whoever locks in brand presence and media relationships first, before rivals launch and before any volume limits arrive, gets a durable head start. A sponsored content deal now is cheap insurance on a $15 million bet.
Cabinet banned the tactics, not the tonnage
The regime is not toothless on creative content. In 2025, Cabinet decided to ban jackpot advertising, affiliate marketing, influencer endorsements and imagery of coins or banknotes, as Newsroom reported in January. Ads must carry harm minimisation messaging and cannot run near programming likely to attract children.
What Cabinet left out matters more. The decisions were silent on advertising frequency and volume across all 15 licences. Problem Gambling Foundation CEO Melissa Thompson warned at the time that “high volume advertising across 15 licences will inevitably increase exposure” for younger and vulnerable audiences.
It is not only harm-reduction groups saying this. In 2025, Martin Cheer, then-managing director of Pub Charity, told a select committee New Zealanders should brace for “a tsunami of promotion”, including push alerts and “$100 free credit” offers that would make current TAB advertising look mild.
Even the operators see the backlash coming
The sharpest warning comes from inside the industry. Entain’s Andrew Hannan says “the risk is 15 brands fighting tooth and nail” for a newly legal market, which “could lead to advertising restrictions down the road.” Entain speaks from experience. Its TAB rebrand and marketing push in 2025 drew enough public anger that the company scaled back.
Stakeholder feedback in the policy process pointed the same way, with media firms bracing for complaints, advertisers worried about crowding, and health agencies warning that counter-messaging would be “highly constrained” without a volume cap.
This is the pro-business case for getting it right now. Legalising and taxing a market that was already flowing offshore is sensible policy. But a regime that invites a free-for-all, followed by a public backlash, ends in blunt restrictions written in anger. That is worse for operators, broadcasters and publishers than clear rules set upfront.
The enforcer is already behind
The compliance record does not inspire confidence. The foundation’s Andree Froude says offshore operators “have been treating our law as optional for quite some time”, pointing to social media inducements, wall tagging and influencer promotion. She wants DIA properly resourced, and non-compliance history weighed in licensing decisions.
The targeting has been deliberate. In 2025, The Spinoff reported Māori make up 17% of the population but 30% of problem gamblers, and that 27 influencers were on a DIA watch-list for promoting offshore casinos. Some of those same offshore brands now hold or seek a licence.
What happens next
Licensing is due to wrap up in early 2027. Between now and then, ministers have a narrow window to set a volume and frequency framework, and to give DIA the people to police it. If they don’t, the market’s opening months will set the norms, and those norms are being negotiated right now in sponsored content pitches.
For media businesses, the incoming ad money is real and welcome. It will be far more durable if it arrives under rules the public accepts. For the operators, Hannan’s advice is the cheapest they will get. Show restraint before Parliament is forced to impose it.
Sources
- Newsroom: Online casino bidders pitch sponsored content before legalisation (2026-10-27)
- RNZ: Overseas gambling sites flouting New Zealand advertising laws, foundation warns (2026-10-19)
- DIA: 2025 New Zealand Market Insights Report – Historical Market Analysis (2025-11)
- Newsroom: Influencers and images of money to be banned in online gambling adverts (2026-01-15)
- The Post: Tsunami of adverts coming for online casinos if Parliament lifts ban (2025-09-07)
- Newsroom: Entain warns of public backlash to a gambling ad blitz (2026-09-29)
- The Spinoff: Will NZ’s big bet on online gambling pay off? (2025-07-02)
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