The market moved first
New Zealand has passed the solar tipping point, according to Rewiring Aotearoa research lead Josh Ellison. Most people buying panels will now save more than they spend. The tipping point for panels was probably crossed three years ago, and batteries have now followed.
The numbers are not marginal. Average households save about $1,000 per year net. EECA’s study of almost 50,000 homes across four cities found annual internal rates of return between 6% and 14%. Financial journalist Frances Cook calculated her household’s solar switch as delivering a higher return than the stock market. Power prices are the accelerant: Consumer NZ forecasts a further 5% rise in 2026 after a 12% increase in 2025.
Demand is responding. Meridian Energy reports weekly solar app registrations up 214% over six months. Just under 84,000 customers now have solar, up from 20,000 in 2018. But that is still only 3-4% of households, compared with 30% in Australia.
Eight layers of sign-off for a roof panel
The regulatory gap with Australia explains much of the difference. In Victoria, there is one layer of sign-off, the installer manages the process, and inspections use photographs without mandatory site visits. In New Zealand, the same installation can require up to 8 regulatory layers and potentially 5 separate site visits from 4 different entities. The installer often cannot turn off the fuse, update the meter, or conduct an independent electrical inspection.
Council inconsistency makes it worse. Central Otago requires no consent while neighbouring Queenstown Lakes charges thousands. Waikato dairy farmer Andrew Lord was charged $2,895 in consenting fees by Waipa District Council for an installation costing between $8,500 and $11,500. That is a 25-34% regulatory surcharge on a rational economic decision.
Seymour’s review promises simplicity
Regulations Minister David Seymour today announced a review targeting the remaining layers of sign-off, with the stated ambition of making NZ approvals “among the simplest in the developed world.” This follows the October 2025 package from Building Minister Chris Penk that removed building consent for retrofitting solar on existing buildings and expanded the permitted voltage range, modelled to boost generation by 507 GWh.
The Electricity Authority has been moving faster than ministers. From around May 2026, lines companies are required to have a default export limit of 10kW, double the previous cap. From April 2026, distributors must pay rebates for peak-time power fed back to the grid. These changes materially improve the payback for businesses that can time their export.
The binding constraint nobody is fixing
Here is the uncomfortable truth for the centre-right narrative: consenting reform primarily benefits people who already have the capital. Only 20% of households have access to green loans from banks due to equity and mortgage requirements. Renters and lower-equity owners are excluded entirely.
Ellison puts it directly: “If households were able to finance solar in the same way that energy companies are allowed to build their assets and put it onto consumer bills, then most homes in New Zealand could have $1,000 a year lower bills today.”
The Seymour review does not address this. A February 2026 RNZ investigation revealed that officials presented clear evidence rooftop solar is among the cheapest electricity sources available, and the government still chose regulatory tweaks “expected to have only minor effect” over any financial support.
What this means for business owners
For commercial operators, the calculation depends on load profile. EECA’s study of 144 commercial sites found IRRs above 5% only where network cost savings were significant. Food processing, manufacturing, cold storage, and large retail with refrigeration have the strongest case. Hospitality and logistics with overnight operations have the weakest.
If you have the capital and the right daytime load, the case has never been clearer. The consenting review will remove friction at the margins. But for the majority of businesses and households that need financing to make the switch, the system remains designed around those who can already afford it. That is a market failure dressed up as a deregulation success story.
Sources
- New Zealand passes solar tipping point (2026-05-07)
- NZ moves to slash red tape for smaller solar systems (2026-05-07)
- If solar is the cheapest form of energy, why don’t we make more? (2026-05-04)
- Commercial solar NZ business case 2026: returns, costs, payback (2026-05-05)
- Government ‘kicked the tyres’ on solar subsidies but went with ‘minor’ tweaks instead (2026-02-12)
- Government moves to boost household solar power (2025-10-01)
- EECA research shows the economic benefits of solar (2025-06-24)