CEOs will tolerate Peters as kingmaker, not as prime minister

The comments in this year’s Mood of the Boardroom about Winston Peters read like gossip. They are not. When chief executives question whether an 81-year-old minor party leader should lead the next government, they are doing what boardrooms do with any unhedged exposure. They are pricing it.

The NZ Herald’s survey frames the question bluntly as one of leadership, succession and whether NZ First’s economic prescriptions would deliver the stability and growth business wants. With the election on 7 November, that is a live investment question.

The premiership is the new problem

The sharpest responses are not about NZ First policy in general. They are about Peters in the top job. One respondent said the leader of a coalition should come from the largest party. Another praised his record as deputy prime minister and foreign minister but questioned whether he should lead government. A third wrote that “Winston is now in the Trump-Biden twilight zone. He needs to gracefully step aside.” Others raised his “emotional control” and warned the premiership could become a bottom line in coalition talks.

That is a distinct shift. In 2025, Peters scored 3.70 out of 5, up from 3.40 and ahead of every other minor party leader for the second year running. The shared deputy PM arrangement with David Seymour rated 3.07 and was seen as working more smoothly than expected. Business was comfortable with Peters as a senior partner. It is not comfortable with him as the senior partner.

Confidence is up, and politics is the drag

The companion survey explains why this matters. Election policy uncertainty is now the single biggest domestic concern at 7.62 out of 10, overtaking the electricity and fuel worries that topped previous years. It dwarfs the dairy price slump (4.39), emissions policy (4.49) and immigration settings (4.78).

Yet CEOs’ confidence in their own industry jumped to 3.42 out of 5, against 2.47 in the 2023 election year. Operationally, things are improving. The overhang is political. EMA chief executive John Fraser-Mackenzie says the prospect of “wholesale changes under a new Government” makes it difficult for business to build internal capability.

The maths of this election sharpens the risk. Reuters reported that smaller parties are polling at roughly a third of the vote, and that Christopher Luxon’s coalition risks becoming the first single-term government in more than five decades. Reuters also noted investors are uneasy about upheaval just as a small, capital-hungry economy emerges from a slowdown. When a third of the vote sits with minor parties, their bottom lines become everyone’s bottom line.

This is an informed prior, not paranoia

Boardroom wariness of NZ First has a long paper trail. Back in 2013, a resources CEO warned that “containing a hyena in the tent can be dangerous even though it initially cuddles up to the feet.” In 2017, CEOs rated Peters’ performance at just 2.76 out of 5, despite his party’s pledge to cut company tax to 25%, because of his TPP opposition and lengthening list of bottom lines.

The clearest precedent came in 2019, when nearly two-thirds of CEOs said Jacinda Ardern should have secured NZ First’s backing for a capital gains tax before launching the Tax Working Group. The policy died on NZ First’s veto. Business liked the outcome but hated the process, because months of planning were wasted on something one coalition partner could kill.

The broader appetite for stability was already visible a year ago. BusinessNZ’s 2025 survey found post-election policy reversals had overtaken interest rates as firms’ top worry, even as 68% planned to hold or lift capital spending.

The fair counterpoint

None of this makes NZ First a simple villain. In 2024, commentator Matthew Hooton argued the party had become a voice for economic orthodoxy, noting Peters delivered surpluses as Treasurer and urging NZ First ministers to push for $18 billion in spending cuts. There is a credible case that Peters has been a brake on fiscal looseness.

But CEOs are not only worried about NZ First. In 2025, 43% doubted Nicola Willis’ growth agenda, and Investment Boost scored a weak 1.88 out of 5. Boardrooms already had doubts about the incumbents. A fight over who becomes prime minister adds a second layer of uncertainty to a growth story that was never fully trusted.

What boards should watch

The signal to track is not the polls. It is what NZ First says about the premiership in the final fortnight. If it becomes a formal bottom line, expect coalition talks to drag, capital decisions to slip into 2027 and the risk premium CEOs are already applying to become real delayed investment. Business will live with Peters as kingmaker. It has done so for 30 years. What it will not do is commit capital until it knows who is actually running the country.

Sources

• NZ Herald: New Zealand First economic policies draw scepticism in CEO survey (2026-10-22)
• NZ Herald: Mood of the Boardroom – Election policy uncertainty tops NZ CEOs’ concerns (2026-10-21)
• NZ Herald: Mood of the Boardroom – Peters rises as Seymour and Greens slip with CEOs (2025-09-25)
• RNZ: Businesses worried about government policy reversals after elections – survey (2025-09-16)
• NZ Herald: Mood of the Boardroom – Business leaders doubt Nicola Willis’ growth agenda after weak GDP result (2025-09-23)
• NZ Herald: Matthew Hooton – NZ First now a voice for economic orthodoxy (2024-03-21)
• NZ Herald: Mood of the Boardroom – It’s Coalition Management 101 (2019-09-23)
• NZ Herald: Winston Peters – Kingmaker or Queenmaker? (2017-09-11)
• NZ Herald: Do Nats need a partnership with Winston? (2013-07-24)