Labour has overtaken National for the first time in almost two years, according to the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll.
The poll, conducted from January 9 to 13, indicates that Labour is at 30.9%, an increase of 4 percentage points from the results in December. National has dropped 4.6 points to 29.6%. This marks the first occasion since April 2023 that Labour has taken the lead over National in this poll.
ACT is at 10.8%, a decrease of 2.2 points; the Greens are at 9.5%, an increase of 1.2 points; New Zealand First stands at 8.1%, up by 2.7 points; and Te Pāti Māori is at 5.3%, down 0.2 points.
In terms of parliamentary seats, Labour would secure 39 seats, an increase of five seats since last month. Meanwhile, National has 38 seats in Parliament, a decrease of six from last month.
The Greens would secure 12 seats, an increase of one, while ACT would drop to 14 seats, losing three. Te Pāti Māori would have 7 seats, and New Zealand First would gain 10 seats.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has decreased by 2.6 points, now standing at 24.5%. David Seymour has seen a slight increase of 0.5 points, bringing him to 6.3%.
Chris Hipkins is down 4.6 points to 15.3%
Chlöe Swarbrick is up 4 points, currently at 8.5% and Winston Peters of New Zealand First has risen by 3 points to reach 8.8%.
Based on the poll, the cost of living continues to be the primary concern for voters, with 22.3% identifying it as their top issue. This is followed by:
- Economy at 17.5%
- Health at 11.6%
- Māori or Treaty at 8%
- Environment at 5.8%
- Education at 4.5%.
The latest polling also looks into the public sentiment regarding the direction of the New Zealand government.
39% of respondents felt that the country was moving in the right direction, while 53% believed it was heading in the wrong direction. This indicates a net right/wrong direction score of -14%, reflecting a decrease of 17 points.