Humanoid robotics has become a critical technological battleground, with China and the United States locked in a high-stakes competition. While American firms like Tesla and Nvidia lead in AI innovation, Chinese manufacturers are taking advantage of advanced hardware capabilities and government support to challenge their dominance.
Humanoid robots—machines designed to mimic human form and movement—are set to dramatically alter industries ranging from healthcare to logistics. The global market is projected to reach $49–103 billion by 2035, driven by AI integration and labour shortages.
Key innovations in 2025 include enhanced autonomy, with robots now performing complex tasks like predictive maintenance and real-time environmental adaptation. Modular designs enable customisable components for sectors such as manufacturing and customer service, while digital twin integration optimises robot performance and reduces deployment risks.
The US retains an edge in AI software, exemplified by Nvidia’s “generalist robotics” declaration and Tesla’s Optimus project, which aims to produce 5,000 units in 2025. However, Chinese firms like Unitree Robotics and Agibot are closing the gap through cost-effective manufacturing and supply chain dominance. Unitree’s G1 model, priced at $16,000, undercuts Tesla’s projected $20,000 Optimus Gen2, while Agibot matches Tesla’s production targets.
Beijing has prioritised humanoid robotics through policies like the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s 2023 guidelines for large-scale production by 2025. Chinese EV giants BYD and Geely have already deployed Unitree robots in factories, while state media highlights their role in addressing labour shortages.
In contrast, US firms face challenges in reshoring production. “To catch up, U.S. players must rapidly mobilise a strong manufacturing and industrial base, whether domestically or through allied nations,” an analyst advised.
Early adopters include BMW, which is testing Figure 02 robots in South Carolina for industrial tasks. Analysts predict humanoid robots will first supplement factory workers before expanding into services like healthcare and retail.
Goldman Sachs estimates 250,000 industrial humanoid units will ship by 2030, with consumer purchases exceeding one million annually within a decade.
The race is far from settled, but one certainty is that humanoid robots will redefine global industries—and the nations that master them will shape the future of work.