China’s export sector posted a stronger-than-anticipated 12.4% year-on-year increase in March, reaching $313.9 billion, as manufacturers raced to fulfil overseas orders ahead of escalating U.S. tariffs.
The surge, the steepest since October 2024, defied economists’ projections of a 4.4% rise and signalled heightened trade uncertainties. Meanwhile, imports contracted by 4.3% to $211.3 billion, showing persistent weaknesses in domestic consumption and industrial demand.
The rebound follows a tepid start to 2025, with exports growing just 2.3% during the first two months of the year—the slowest pace since April 2024. Analysts attribute the March spike to businesses expediting shipments to circumvent punitive U.S. duties, which have risen to 145% on most Chinese goods under President Donald Trump’s revised trade agenda.
Bilateral tensions remain acute, with China’s trade surplus with the U.S. swelling to $27.6 billion in March. Export values to America rose 9.1%, while imports of U.S. goods fell 9.5%. Beijing retaliated with tariffs of up to 125% on targeted American products and export curbs on critical minerals, drawing criticism from Lingjun Wang, deputy head of China’s customs administration, who condemned Washington’s “abusive use of tariffs” and reaffirmed Beijing’s commitment to “strictly enforce” countermeasures while pursuing global trade partnerships.
Regional trade dynamics revealed notable shifts—shipments to ASEAN nations grew 11.6%, led by a 19% jump to Vietnam, while exports to the EU climbed 10.3%. Import volumes from the European bloc, however, slid 7.5%. Commodity imports reflected domestic economic strains, with iron ore purchases dropping to 94 million tonnes—the lowest since 2023—and soybean arrivals plunging 36.8% to levels last seen in 2008.
In contrast, semiconductor and crude oil imports rose 11.2% and 4.8%, respectively, while exports of advanced technology products like semiconductors and rare earths surged over 25% and 20%.
Domestically, policymakers face mounting pressure to revive consumer spending and stabilise property markets. Recent data showed consumer prices contracting for a second consecutive month and producer prices declining for the 29th straight month, a trend Goldman Sachs cited when downgrading China’s 2025 growth forecast to 4%. The Wall Street bank warned that even aggressive stimulus measures might not fully offset tariff-related disruptions, particularly as global supply chains reconfigure.
With first-quarter GDP figures due on Wednesday and a Politburo meeting later this month, analysts anticipate targeted measures to boost household demand and manufacturing resilience. However, the escalating trade war threatens to undermine China’s 5% annual growth target, with long-term risks to global economic stability.