The numbers arrived together for a reason
On 25 June, two data points landed on the same morning. The NZBRIC Business Outlook report found 64% of New Zealand businesses now report high or very high optimism about operating in China, up sharply from 51% in 2025, with total confidence climbing to 97% from 94%. Within the hour, Stats NZ merchandise trade data for March 2026 showed goods exports to China up $213 million, or 11%, on March 2025, while exports to the United States fell $56 million, or 5.9%.
That is not coincidence. It is the same commercial logic showing up in a survey and in the shipping manifests. Exporters are leaning into the market that keeps growing and is at least legible, and quietly pulling back from the one that changes its tariff rules by press conference.
China is harder, not friendlier
The optimism is not naive. The same report is blunt that China is a tougher place to do business than it used to be. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan prioritises production quality over quantity, sharpening domestic competition, and retail sales recently fell for the first time in more than three years as investment slumped. Q2 2026 GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.5%, down from 5% in Q1.
The key point is what kind of difficulty this is. In July 2025, the Yicai Global summary of the prior NZBRIC survey found 57% of firms cited domestic competition inside China as their biggest concern, against just 29% citing geopolitical tension. That distinction matters. Commercial problems have commercial solutions. You can move into cheaper cities, sharpen your supply chain, localise your branding. You cannot price in a tariff regime that lurches by tweet.
Firms are changing the playbook, not doubling down
NZBRIC chairman Daniel Young says the response is strategic, not stubborn. “As China continues to grow domestically, New Zealand businesses are moving to capture new markets outside the traditional tier one cities, optimise their supply chains and utilise local talent to move faster in the ever-changing Chinese market,” Young says.
The sharpest signal is in logistics. 34% of surveyed firms now expect to further optimise their China supply chains, up from 20% in 2025, the biggest year-on-year jump of any investment driver in the survey. Firms are also pushing into tier-two and tier-three cities as appetite for aspirational products spreads beyond the coastal megacities. Chris Metcalfe, NZTE regional director for Greater China, told BusinessDesk in March 2026 that exporters were generally feeling “pretty good”, framing China as steady ground despite softer headline growth.
The export base it is built on
This is not a fragile bet. New Zealand’s annual goods exports hit $81 billion in the year to March 2026, up $7.1 billion on the prior year, with China a key driver. The MFAT Q1 2025 trade update showed exports to China reached $21 billion in the year to March 2025, the highest in a decade, with dairy exports up 13.9% and horticulture up 41.9%. For dairy, apples and kiwifruit producers, China is not a punt. It is the order book.
The risk that sits above the order book
The official line resists framing this as a choice. In July 2025, NZ China Council chair John McKinnon wrote that “any suggestion that we must choose between these relationships is anathema, and unrealistic to boot,” while conceding that “the quality of the relationship between the United States and China is still a major factor in shaping New Zealand’s external environment.” Diplomats may insist there is no choice. The trade data suggests firms have already made one.
The longer-run worry is architectural. If Washington and Beijing begin managing trade bilaterally, white-listing goods and setting their own guardrails on rare earths, chips and export controls, small trading nations operating under WTO and FTA rules could end up outside the room. That is not a threat to next quarter’s dairy shipment. It is the structural risk humming beneath the current optimism. For now, exporters have weighed difficult against chaotic, and difficult is winning.
Sources
- NZ businesses boost China investment despite tougher market (2026-06-25)
- Overseas merchandise trade: March 2026 (2026-06-25)
- China provides steady ground for NZ exporters despite softer growth (2026-03-30)
- Trade and Economic Update Q1 2025 (2025-07)
- New Zealand Firms Remain Optimistic About China Despite Growing Competition (2025-07-23)
- Finding our place between America and China – NZCC Chair op ed (2025-07-15)