Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea comes at a moment when China is seeking to restore its influence over a neighbour that has developed an increasingly close relationship with Russia.
The Chinese leader arrived in Pyongyang for a two-day trip on Monday, his first visit to the country since 2019. The talks are expected to focus on economic cooperation and regional security, but the timing points to a broader concern in Beijing. China does not want Moscow to become Pyongyang’s most important partner.
North Korea has strengthened its ties with Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, providing troops and weapons to support Moscow’s war effort. The two countries also signed a mutual defence agreement during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in 2024.
The partnership has given Kim Jong Un greater room to manoeuvre. North Korea still depends heavily on China for trade and diplomatic support, but its growing relationship with Russia has provided another source of economic assistance, military cooperation, and political backing.
“China wants to ensure that its interests vis-a-vis North Korea are protected at a time of rapid convergence between Moscow and Pyongyang,” said Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Beijing faces a difficult balancing act. It wants stability on the Korean Peninsula and has little interest in a crisis that could strengthen security cooperation between the United States, South Korea, and Japan. However, it is also wary of applying too much pressure on Kim, particularly over North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme.
China appears to be relying on diplomacy and economic engagement instead. Trade between the two countries rose sharply last year, while passenger trains between Beijing and Pyongyang resumed earlier this year after a six-year suspension.
For Kim, rebuilding ties with China is a practical decision. Russia’s demand for North Korean support could decline if the war in Ukraine changes course, while Beijing’s interest in the Korean Peninsula is unlikely to fade.
Xi’s visit may be presented as a display of friendship, but it is also a reminder of the limits of trust between the two governments. China wants to keep North Korea close, while Kim wants to benefit from Beijing’s support without becoming dependent on it.