New Zealand’s meat, dairy, wine and machinery exporters collectively paid hundreds of millions in tariffs that the US Supreme Court has now declared illegal. In theory, that money should come back. In practice, most of it probably won’t.
The February ruling was unambiguous. Chief Justice John Roberts, joined by five colleagues including two Trump appointees, held that the president had no clear congressional authorisation to impose tariffs of “unlimited amount, duration, and scope” under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. By the time the gavel fell, the US government had collected US$134 billion in IEEPA tariff revenue from more than 301,000 importers.
The court said nothing about what should happen to that money.
The NZ bill runs deep
New Zealand initially faced a 10% base tariff from April 2025, raised to 15% from August 2025. According to Export NZ’s executive director Joshua Tan, roughly 70% of NZ goods exported to the US were caught by the higher rate.
The damage showed up quickly. MFAT’s September 2025 assessment found the first full post-tariff quarter saw NZ exports to the US fall 3.0%, with wine exports down 20.6% and meat down 2.0%. The Meat Industry Association estimated tariffs had cost its members NZ$300 million by early November 2025. Dairy was hit hardest of all, paying the full 15% plus existing US duties for the entire period, while beef and kiwifruit were exempted in late 2025.
The refund goes to the wrong address
Here is the structural problem that makes the billion-dollar headline misleading. Under US customs law, the tariff was paid by the American importer of record, not the New Zealand exporter. Any refund flows to the US buyer.
Tan put it plainly: “Unless the exporter is also the importer in the US there is going to be no direct payment of duties paid to a New Zealand export company.”
The practical path for most Kiwi exporters is to work with their American customers to claim the refund, then negotiate to have some portion passed back. US customs consultant Evelyn Suarez, who briefed exporters at a New Zealand Trade and Enterprise webinar, advised: “Work with your customers in the United States; they will need your help.” Whether that money actually crosses the Pacific depends entirely on the commercial relationship.
MFAT confirmed it cannot even quantify total tariffs paid on NZ goods, because legally those payments were not made by New Zealand companies.
Big players will get theirs, small exporters probably won’t
The companies best placed are those registered as their own US importers. Zespri chief executive Jason Te Brake called a potential refund “a bonus of being the importer of record.” Zuru, the NZ-founded manufacturing conglomerate with roughly US$2 billion in annual American revenue, has filed suit in the US Court of International Trade seeking hundreds of millions back.
Smaller exporters face a grimmer reality. Fiona Cooper of the NZ United States Council noted the refund process “only applied to registered importers” and that smaller firms found conditions “particularly difficult.”
Even for those who qualify, TD Securities estimated refunds could take 12 to 18 months. Trump himself suggested litigation could drag on for five years. Export NZ’s Tan was blunter: refunds are “highly unlikely” to trickle through to most New Zealand exporters.
The tariffs are gone but the problem isn’t
The IEEPA tariffs were struck down, but they have already been replaced. The NZ United States Council noted a new global 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act is now in force, with Trump hinting at 15%. The Supreme Court ruling removed one instrument. It did not remove the intent.
Trade Minister Todd McClay acknowledged the asymmetry: American goods entering New Zealand face a tariff of just 0.3%, compared to the 15% NZ faced. Yet New Zealand still has no free trade agreement with the United States, the glaring gap in its otherwise extensive FTA network. During the tariff period, NZ exporters proved they could diversify, with EU exports up 33.6% and South Korea up 21.9% in the same quarter US shipments fell.
The refund story makes for a compelling headline. But for most Kiwi exporters, the real lesson is not that Washington might return their money. It is that they should never have been so exposed to a market where they have no trade agreement and no legal protection against the next executive order.
Sources
- RNZ: US Supreme Court rules that Trump’s sweeping emergency tariffs are illegal (2026-02-21)
- RNZ: Kiwi exporters briefed on US tariff refunds (2026-02-21)
- The Spinoff: What does the latest twist in the US tariff saga mean for New Zealand exporters? (2026-02-25)
- 1News: Companies lining up for Trump tariff refunds but process may be chaotic (2026-02-22)
- MFAT: US tariff 10 percent assessment April 2025 (2025-09)
- MFAT: US trade update 22 May 2025 (2025-05-22)
- Farmers Weekly: NZ exporters have a stake in US ruling (2026-02-03)
- NZ Herald: Zuru sues US Government over unlawful Trump tariffs, seeks huge refund
- NZ United States Council: US Supreme Court ruling on Liberation Day tariffs (2026-02-21)
- RNZ: Uncertainty likely to remain following US Supreme Court tariff ruling, Trade Minister says (2026-02-21)