United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby reportedly pitched a potential merger with American Airlines to the Trump administration earlier this year, a proposal that could create the world’s largest airline.
While the Trump team seems more open to massive deals than previous administrations, the plan would trigger fierce regulatory pushback. The top four U.S. carriers, United, American, Delta Air Lines, and Southwest Airlines, already hold about 80 per cent of domestic capacity according to OAG data. A United-American union would command roughly 40 per cent of the market, breaching key antitrust benchmarks like the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index as per recent Department of Justice guidelines.
“This would be the biggest of all time. I can’t even see the slightest chance that a court would allow it,” said George Hay, an antitrust law professor at Cornell University.
Both airlines refused comment on the Bloomberg report from Monday, and the White House has not replied. American shares rose 8 per cent Tuesday but remained over 20 per cent down year-to-date, while United gained more than 2 per cent, cutting losses to 13 per cent.
Seaport Research Partners’ Daniel McKenzie attributed the moves “to short covering rather than the market assigning legitimacy to the merger idea,” predicting it would be “dead on arrival, though politely reviewed until the public backlash became too deafening.”
ICF’s Samuel Engel warned that if the Justice Department “doesn’t object to that, then what would they object to? It is very hard to imagine a deal of that magnitude and concentration going through,” noting how such mergers curb capacity and raise fares.
TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald identified 289 routes requiring sales to preserve competition. The Biden era blocked similar pacts, including American-JetBlue in 2023 and JetBlue-Spirit in 2024.
Transport Secretary Sean Duffy signalled flexibility last week, saying “Is there room for some mergers in the aviation industry? Yeah, I think there is,” to CNBC’s Phil LeBeau, adding that President Trump loves big deals but would review them.
Amid 25 per cent jet fuel hikes, airlines like Delta are cutting capacity, risking higher prices. “Over my career, I’ve seen many periods of disruption in this industry. And time and again, high fuel prices have been the most powerful catalyst for change,” Delta’s Ed Bastian said recently.
United and Delta lead profits, with American trailing.