U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of an imminent American withdrawal from Iran triggered a strong morning surge in Asian stock markets on Wednesday, offering a glimmer of hope despite lingering crude price pressures and regional unrest.
Speaking from the Oval Office the previous day, Trump stated that Iran is “begging to make a deal,” yet insisted the outcome is irrelevant to Washington’s plans, with troops due to exit in two to three weeks.” The remarks spurred immediate optimism among investors wary of prolonged conflict.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index jumped nearly 4% in early trading, while South Korea’s Kospi climbed more than 6%, though both benchmarks have yet to recover to levels seen before the war began on 28 February. Brent crude for June delivery edged up 1.2% to $105.36, capping a dramatic March in which May futures rocketed 64%—the largest monthly gain since Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait disrupted global supplies, according to Economist Intelligence Unit analyst Nicolas Daher.
Iran’s threats to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of the world’s oil, fuelled those fears. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed his nation’s “necessary will” to end the fighting but called for guarantees against future attacks.
Nations like Japan and South Korea, which rely on the Gulf for over 90% of their oil imports, have borne the heaviest economic strain, leading to volatile trading in recent weeks. Refineries are bidding fiercely for crude to combat shortages of diesel and jet fuel, as Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen observed. Daher anticipates market jitters persisting into late April if tensions endure, potentially stoking inflation reminiscent of past energy crises.
The conflict rages on, with Israeli airstrikes hitting Beirut on Tuesday to target a senior Hezbollah figure. While Goldman Sachs warns of sustained oil premiums without de-escalation, the prospect of a U.S. pullout has boosted regional sentiment, lifting the MSCI Asia-Pacific index by 2.5%. Japan has tapped strategic reserves, and South Korea may follow suit as eyes turn to Tehran’s next move.