Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called three by-elections for 13 April, positioning them as a potential path to a hard-fought majority in the House of Commons for his Liberal Party.
With 169 seats already in hand—three shy of the 170 needed in the 338-member chamber—these races in Toronto and Montreal could reshape the political landscape and let Carney sidestep a general election until 2029.
The Toronto contests look promising for Liberals, who have dominated University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest since 2015. The former opened when Chrystia Freeland stepped down to take a voluntary advisory role with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while Bill Blair moved on to become Canada’s ambassador to the United Kingdom.
Yet the real drama unfolds in Terrebonne, a Montreal suburb long held by the separatist Bloc Québécois until it flipped to the Liberals in 2025 by a single vote. Canada’s Supreme Court mandated a re-run after Bloc candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné contested the outcome over a misprinted mail-in ballot that disenfranchised a voter. Now, she faces Liberal Tatiana Auguste in a rematch, as the party ramps up door-knocking and phone banks to lock in support.
This comes on the heels of three Conservative MPs defecting to the Liberals, a shift that has enraged the opposition. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre labels it “undemocratic” and accuses the Liberals of using “pressure tactics” on their ranks.
Recent Nanos Research polls highlight public unease over such floor-crossing, even as Abacus Data shows Liberals leading comfortably in the Toronto seats by 15 to 20 points and clinging to a razor-thin 48-47 edge in Terrebonne.
Carney, the former Bank of England governor who became prime minister in 2025, frames the by-elections as a fresh mandate amid nagging issues like inflation and housing shortages.
Critics from the NDP warn of backlash if voters see opportunism. With by-election turnout often dipping below 40 per cent according to Elections Canada, the Liberals’ grassroots push could prove decisive. Ipsos tracking even projects national majority territory for Carney at 52 per cent support.