The United States has overtaken Australia to become New Zealand’s second-largest export destination, according to new trade data released by Stats NZ. The U.S. accounted for NZ$9 billion in New Zealand exports in 2024, representing 12% of total export value. While China remains New Zealand’s largest trading partner, the shift highlights the growing importance of the American market for Kiwi goods, particularly meat exports.
Meat Exports a Key Factor
A key factor behind the surge in exports to the U.S. is the increasing demand for New Zealand beef, largely driven by a shrinking U.S. cattle herd and strong burger consumption. The U.S. became New Zealand’s largest buyer of meat in 2024, surpassing China, with meat exports to the American market rising 17% year-over-year to reach NZ$2.6 billion.
Westpac senior economist Darren Gibbs noted that U.S. fast-food chains have increased their reliance on lean beef trimmings from New Zealand, which are widely used in burger production. “They’re rebuilding their beef herd in the US so they need more imports,” Gibbs explained.
Stats NZ data showed that while the quantity of meat exports to the U.S. rose by 6.2 %, the value increase of 17% suggests that global beef shortages have pushed prices higher. Notably, exports of sheep meat to the U.S. surged by 26% in 2024, contributing to the overall growth.
Dairy, Wine, and Machinery Among Other Key Exports
Beyond meat, dairy products remain a strong export category to the U.S., including milk powder, butter, cheese, and casein—a protein extracted from milk. Wine exports have also seen growing demand, particularly for New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc.
Additionally, New Zealand supplies mechanical machinery and industrial equipment to the U.S., including agricultural machinery such as harvesting machines and fruit-sorting equipment, as well as engines and machine tools.
Decade-Long Growth and Trade Surplus
Over the past ten years, New Zealand’s exports to the U.S. have nearly doubled, rising from NZ$4.7 billion in 2014 to NZ$9 billion in 2024. December 2024 trade data further highlighted the growing trade momentum, with New Zealand recording its first merchandise trade surplus in six months.
Total goods exports in December increased by NZ$1 billion compared to the same month in 2023, reaching NZ$6.8 billion, while imports rose by NZ$404 million to NZ$6.6 billion.
A One-Sided Trade Relationship
Despite the increasing importance of the U.S. as an export market for New Zealand, the trade relationship remains heavily one-sided. While the U.S. is now New Zealand’s second-largest export destination, New Zealand does not rank among the top 50 suppliers of goods to the U.S., which exposes the country’s reliance on American demand rather than it being a reciprocal trading relationship.
Potential Trade Risks Under Trump’s New Term
The shift in trade dynamics comes as Donald Trump begins his second term as U.S. President, bringing renewed speculation about potential tariffs and protectionist policies. While Trump’s trade rhetoric has so far been directed at countries with which the U.S. runs large deficits—such as Mexico and Canada—New Zealand exporters remain wary of possible disruptions.
ANZ economist Henry Russell noted that if the U.S. imposed universal tariffs, New Zealand would not be at a disadvantage compared to other exporters. However, if Australia were exempt from new tariffs while New Zealand was not, Kiwi exporters could face a loss of competitiveness in the U.S. market.