Image source: CNBC Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
Following the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the future direction of U.S. trade policy remains a critical concern for New Zealand’s economy. Both candidates’ comments on international trade shed light on how a Trump or Harris administration could affect global markets, particularly for New Zealand, which relies heavily on trade with the United States.
During the debate, Donald Trump reaffirmed his commitment to tariffs as a key component of his trade policy, despite concerns from economists. Steve Kamin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, emphasised the inflationary and contractionary effects of tariffs to CNBC, noting that additional tariffs under Trump would likely increase prices for consumers. However, Trump downplayed these warnings, insisting that American consumers would not bear the brunt of higher costs.
“What’s going to happen and who’s going to have higher prices is China and all of the countries that have been ripping us off for years,” Trump stated, maintaining that foreign nations, not U.S. consumers, would feel the impact of his proposed tariffs.
For New Zealand, Trump’s stance signals potential disruptions in trade if his administration re-imposes blanket tariffs on imports, particularly agricultural products like dairy and meat. Although Trump claims that the burden of tariffs will fall on foreign countries, history suggests that such measures often lead to price increases domestically, which could reduce demand for imported goods—including those from New Zealand.
Kamala Harris, in contrast, criticised the Trump administration’s approach to trade, pointing out that it had led to one of the largest trade deficits in U.S. history. She accused Trump of “inviting trade wars” that destabilised global markets. Harris signalled her preference for a more collaborative and strategic approach to trade, one that leverages alliances and targets key areas such as technology and innovation.
“That requires focusing on relationships with our allies, focusing on investing in American-based technology so that we win the race on AI, on quantum computing, focusing on what we need to do to support America’s workforce,” Harris said during the debate. Her comments suggest that a Harris administration would pursue trade policies that prioritise stability and cooperation, in stark contrast to Trump’s protectionist measures.
For New Zealand, Harris’s approach could offer more predictable trading conditions. Her focus on multilateral agreements and targeted restrictions, particularly in coordination with U.S. allies, may provide opportunities for New Zealand’s agricultural exports to thrive, especially in sectors aligned with environmental and technological advancements.
Yesterday’s debate highlighted the stark differences between the candidates’ trade policies. Trump’s emphasis on broad tariffs and protectionism could introduce significant challenges for New Zealand, including increased costs and market instability. Meanwhile, Harris’s strategy appears to favour a more measured approach that balances protectionism with cooperation, offering a more stable environment for global trade partners.
