Fewer tourists are choosing New Zealand as their destination, recent figures from Stats NZ indicate.
The overseas visitor arrivals reached 3.37 million in the year ending May, marking an increase of 167,000 compared to the previous year.
While annual tourist figures show an increase, a closer look at the monthly data reveals a slight dip. May saw 190,600 arrivals, and when adjusted for seasonal variations, this represents a 0.9% decrease compared to April 2025.
The annual number of visitors amounted to only 87% of the 219,300 arrivals recorded in May 2019, before the Covid pandemic.
Infometrics economist Nick Brunsdon acknowledged that tourism arrivals were sluggish in May but pointed out that, on an annual basis, arrivals had increased by 5.2%.
He underlined that the recovery of arrivals from China has been slow, reaching only 59% of pre-pandemic levels in the year ending May 2025.
“However, arrivals from China rose 17% per annum in May, impressive growth from our third largest market, and arrivals from the US, our second largest market, continue to grow strongly, up 8.5% in May,” Brundson noted.
He also added that tourism’s recovery was progressing gradually, and it would take several years of slow growth before arrivals returned to pre-pandemic levels.
“A weak outlook for global growth could put consumers into their shells and slow tourism growth further.”
“Changes to US trade and foreign policy are yet to have a perceptible effect on tourist arrivals to New Zealand, with US arrivals still growing.”
For ASB senior economist Mark Smith, the challenge lies in expanding the sector amid increased global uncertainty.
“The US and China are New Zealand’s second and third largest tourism markets, accounting for more than $4.5 billion in annual tourism earnings,” he said.
“Increasing trade frictions could deliver a hit to global and New Zealand tourism over 2025.”