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The 2024 US presidential election, one of the most divisive, pivotal, and unique election cycles the US has ever seen, will culminate this coming Tuesday, 5 November.
Kamala Harris faces former President Donald Trump, who, despite multiple indictments, managed to secure his party’s nomination for a non-consecutive second term. Set against a backdrop of partisan division, economic challenges, and fiery policy debates, the election may well redefine American governance, both domestically and on the world stage.
Here is an overview of everything you need to know in the final days leading up to the election: the process, the candidates, key battleground states, top issues, congressional races, and current polling trends.
The Election Date and Process
The presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Voters will select state-level electors, who will later cast their votes in the Electoral College to formally determine the next president and vice president.
To win, a candidate must secure at least 270 out of the 538 available electoral votes. While most states allocate all their electoral votes to the winner of the state’s popular vote, Maine and Nebraska divide theirs based on congressional district results.
Inauguration Day, set for January 20, 2025, will usher in the 47th president and 50th vice president, and the result will have substantial implications for the US political landscape over the next four years.
When Will We Actually Know The Result?
Polls will close at different times across the US, with the latest polls closing in Alaska at 1am ET on November 6 (6pm NZT on November 7). Some states may have winners declared almost instantly due to exit polling, while others may take longer to tally votes.
The point at which we will actually know the result of the election could vary depending on how close and how contested the results are. In 2016, for example, when Trump was the clear winner, the result was known on election night. In the far more hotly contested 2020 election, however, the winner was not declared until 4 days after Election Day.
Given how tight the polls are, with each candidate polling at about 48%, and with Trump’s historical record of contesting the vote, we could be waiting a while to hear the final result.
Candidates and Running Mates
In case you need one, here’s a quick refresher. Following Biden’s departure, Vice President Kamala Harris accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination and selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Harris’s candidacy is significant as she is the first Black woman and the first Asian American to head a major party ticket. Biden’s decision to step aside after a poor debate performance and growing concerns over his health led to widespread support for Harris within the party, culminating in her formal nomination at the Democratic National Convention in August.
The Republican ticket is led by Donald Trump, who remains popular among his base despite facing multiple legal challenges, including convictions and ongoing investigations related to his previous term and business dealings. Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, reflects his appeal to conservative voters concerned with issues such as immigration and economic reform. Trump’s campaign has centred on promises to restore his earlier policies, framing his bid as a continuation of his 2016 agenda.
Who Is Each Candidate’s Running Mate?
With everyone’s attention drawn to Harris and Trump, you may be less informed about who their respective running partners are. So here’s a quick glance at Tim Walz (Harris) and J.D. Vance (Trump).
Governor Tim Walz
Tim Walz is the current governor of Minnesota. He has a background as a veteran, educator, and politician. Born in Nebraska in 1964, he served 24 years in the Army National Guard, eventually becoming a high school social studies teacher and coach in Minnesota.
Walz’s political career began in 2006 when he was elected to the US House, where he served six terms before becoming Minnesota’s governor in 2018. He is known for championing progressive policies: he supports abortion rights, free school meals, marijuana legalisation, gun control, and expanded paid leave.
As governor, he managed crises like COVID-19 and the response to George Floyd’s murder. Walz’s appeal to moderate voters is rooted in his ability to work across party lines, especially on issues affecting veterans and rural communities.
Senator J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance is currently the junior US Senator from Ohio. He is a prominent Republican known for his alignment with Donald Trump. Born in 1984 in Ohio, he grew up in a challenging environment, raised primarily by his grandparents. He went on to serve in the Marines and earned degrees from Ohio State and Yale Law.
Vance gained national recognition with his bestselling memoir Hillbilly Elegy, which highlighted the struggles of rural America and was later adapted into a Netflix film. Elected to the Senate in 2022, he was chosen as Trump’s vice-presidential running mate for the 2024 election. His key positions include a pro-life stance on abortion, support for stricter immigration policies, opposition to further aid to Ukraine, and advocacy for boosting American industry with minimal regulation.
Electoral College and Voting Dynamics
The Electoral College is a unique and sometimes contentious feature of US presidential elections. Established to balance the influence of smaller and larger states, the system requires candidates to focus on winning electoral votes across a broad geographic spectrum.
The 2020 census adjusted the distribution of electoral votes, with states like Texas and Florida gaining influence due to population increases, while others, such as California and New York, saw decreases. These changes could play a role in determining the outcome, particularly in tight contests in key battleground states.
How Does the Electoral College System Work?
The Electoral College System works quite differently from the MMP system we have in New Zealand. The Electoral College is a system designed to elect the president, involving 538 total electors. Each state receives a number of electors equal to its combined total of Senators and Representatives in Congress. To win the presidency, a candidate needs a majority of 270 electoral votes.
States have a specific process for choosing electors, with each political party nominating a slate of potential electors. When voters cast ballots for president, they’re technically voting for their chosen candidate’s electors. In 48 states and Washington D.C., the candidate who wins the popular vote takes all the electoral votes, but Maine and Nebraska allocate votes differently, awarding some based on congressional district winners.
Electors meet in their states in December to officially cast ballots for president and vice president. In January, Congress meets to count these votes, with the vice president, in their role as Senate President, announcing the results. If no candidate secures 270 votes, the House of Representatives selects the president from the top three candidates.
Notably, it’s possible to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. Although some states require electors to follow the popular vote, others don’t enforce this. Changing the Electoral College system would need a constitutional amendment, as it was originally established to balance the direct popular vote with the Congressional selection of the president.
Key Battleground States
As in past elections, certain swing states will be crucial in deciding the outcome.
The key battleground states for this year’s election are:
- Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)
- Georgia (16)
- Michigan (15)
- Arizona (11)
- Wisconsin (10)
- Nevada (6)
- North Carolina (16)
Each of these states plays a pivotal role for several reasons:
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is the most critical prize among these swing states. It has consistently flipped in recent elections, won by narrow margins in both 2020 and 2016. Given its weight in the electoral college, both campaigns have poured resources into securing the Keystone State.
Georgia and Arizona, once considered solidly Republican, have become increasingly competitive due to significant demographic shifts. Both states have seen a growth in diverse and younger populations, contributing to changing political dynamics and making them prime targets for the Harris campaign.
Michigan is a crucial piece of the so-called “blue wall” that Harris aims to maintain, while Trump’s team is intent on flipping it back to Republican control. With a high number of electoral votes and a strong focus on economic issues, Michigan’s working-class voters may play a decisive role.
Polling suggests that Wisconsin could be the “tipping point” state, where a win could push either candidate over the crucial 270-vote threshold.
Meanwhile, Nevada and North Carolina have emerged as increasingly competitive battlegrounds. Nevada’s diverse electorate and North Carolina’s recent population boom add new layers of complexity. Immigration is expected to be a hot-button issue in Arizona, while abortion rights are likely to be central in several other states.
What are the Key Issues Influencing Voters?
Economic concerns top the list for voters in 2024, with Pew Research data showing 81% of registered voters prioritising the economy as their key issue. Inflation, job stability, and cost of living remain central worries.
For Trump supporters, the economy (93%), immigration (82%), and violent crime (76%) are the most important issues.
Harris supporters, however, focus on health care (76%), Supreme Court appointments (73%), and abortion (67%), which reflects a broader alignment with progressive policy concerns.
Immigration has also become more pressing, especially for Republicans, as voter anxiety around border security and immigration policy continues to increase.
Abortion remains a divisive issue, particularly following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022. Harris has advocated for codifying abortion rights, while Trump’s platform includes tighter restrictions, resonating with a segment of his conservative base.
Additional concerns include climate change, education reform, and democratic principles. Both candidates also face challenges in assuring voters of their competency in international relations, with Trump maintaining a slight advantage in foreign policy polls over Harris.
Congressional and State Elections
The November election extends beyond just the presidency. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, along with 34 Senate seats. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House, while Democrats control the Senate. The balance of power in Congress will impact the next administration’s legislative agenda, particularly in areas like healthcare, immigration, and economic policy.
In addition to the federal races, 11 states and two US territories will elect governors, potentially altering state-level leadership and affecting policies on issues such as abortion access and education.
Voting Methods and Early Turnout
Voters have several options for casting their ballots, including in-person voting on Election Day, early in-person voting, and mail-in voting. Early voting trends show high engagement, with over 42.9 million Americans having voted already.
Early turnout may offer insights into overall voter enthusiasm and could hint at momentum for either party, although it does not guarantee a final outcome. Swing states are closely monitoring early voting patterns, which may prove crucial in such a polarised election.
What’s Unique About the 2024 Election in Particular?
The 2024 election is distinctive in several ways. The reapportionment of electoral votes following the 2020 census reflects changing demographics that could influence state-level political leanings. Trump’s unprecedented campaign under multiple indictments has raised questions about the effect of legal controversies on voter perceptions. Additionally, Biden’s exit from the race and endorsement of Harris shifted the dynamics within the Democratic Party, marking the first time an incumbent president has stepped aside since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.
How is Each Candidate Polling?
It’s neck and neck. Nationally, recent data from CNN and the New York Times/Siena College show that Harris and Trump are nearly tied, each polling around 47-48% of likely voters. Harris has maintained a narrow lead in polling averages since her entry into the race, but the margin remains slim.
In key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, polling reflects an equally tight contest, with most results falling within the margin of error, indicating no decisive lead for either candidate.
But How Accurate Are the Polls?
If you were shocked when Trump won the 2016 election, it was likely (in part at least) due to the fact that almost every poll signalled there was no chance of a Trump victory. There are a number of reasons why polling can be unreliable and why you should, therefore, be wary of taking polling data at face value.
One major issue is nonresponse bias—certain groups may avoid responding altogether. For instance, Republicans have recently been less likely to participate in polls, leading to an underestimation of their support.
Sampling errors also play a role; even carefully conducted polls can miss the mark by not fully representing the population. In 2016, many polls oversampled college-educated voters (who tend to lean Democrat), overestimating support for Hillary Clinton. Additionally, rapid shifts in public opinion can lead to polling inaccuracies, as polls capture only a snapshot in time. For example, late-deciding voters in 2016 largely broke for Trump, which most polls failed to capture.
Another factor is social desirability bias, where respondents may answer in ways they think are more acceptable. This was seen in 2016 and 2020 when some Trump supporters hesitated to disclose their support to pollsters. Likely voter models are also challenging as pollsters struggle to predict who will turn out to vote. The 2022 midterms highlighted this, with polls predicting a “red wave” that didn’t materialise, likely due to turnout misjudgments.
Traditional methods of polling, like phone surveys, are also less reliable, with declining landline usage and low response rates. Pollsters now use online and mixed-method surveys, which present their own challenges. Weighting errors occur when pollsters attempt to balance sample biases, sometimes introducing new inaccuracies, as seen in 2020 when polls underestimated Trump support despite weighting for education levels.
Conclusion
The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a defining moment, as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump vie for an outcome that will set the direction of the country. With tight polling and pivotal issues at the forefront, both campaigns are laser-focused on a handful of battleground states—Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and Arizona, among others—that could ultimately determine the next administration.
Harris’s campaign emphasises progressive policies, including reproductive rights, healthcare, and economic reforms aimed at middle-class stability, resonating with younger and minority voters. Trump, on the other hand, brings a platform focused on economic management, immigration control, and a return to his prior policies, which have retained strong appeal among rural, conservative, and working-class voters.
Beyond just choosing the president, voters are also shaping the balance of power in Congress and setting the stage for state policies, especially in areas like healthcare, education, and reproductive rights. Many close congressional races and 11 gubernatorial elections add to the election’s stakes, as these results will heavily impact the legislative agenda, both federally and at the state level.
With economic concerns, social policy debates, and global positioning at the forefront, the 2024 election is poised to influence not just the immediate political landscape but also the longer-term trajectory of the United States on the global stage. As the final days count down, each candidate’s ground game, last-minute messaging, and turnout strategy will be critical, making this an election where every vote will count.