Following three days of U.S.-mediated negotiations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Ukraine have reached separate agreements with Washington to halt hostilities in the Black Sea and suspend attacks on energy infrastructure.
The deals, announced on Tuesday, represent the most concrete progress toward de-escalation since the conflict began in 2022, though implementation remains contingent on unresolved technical and political hurdles.
Both nations have pledged to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea, prohibit the militarisation of commercial vessels, and refrain from targeting energy facilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the agreements as “the right steps,” while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed the need for “clear guarantees” from Washington to enforce compliance.
As part of its deal with Russia, Washington has committed to easing sanctions on Russian agricultural exports and restoring access to the SWIFT financial messaging system, a longstanding Kremlin demand. However, Kyiv disputes Moscow’s claim that sanctions relief is a prerequisite for implementation, with Zelenskyy asserting that the agreements take effect immediately.
Ukraine and Russia have agreed to involve third-party nations in monitoring compliance. Zelenskyy proposed European or Turkish oversight for maritime adherence, while Middle Eastern states could supervise energy-related commitments. Russian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov warned that any movement of Russian military vessels beyond the eastern Black Sea would constitute a breach, triggering Ukraine’s right to self-defence.
The maritime ceasefire addresses a critical shipping corridor, as Ukraine—once facing a Russian naval blockade—has resumed grain exports near pre-war levels since driving Russian forces from the eastern Black Sea in 2023. However, Russia’s insistence on sanctions relief and Washington’s shifting stance toward Moscow have raised concerns in Kyiv and among European allies, who fear a hasty deal could undermine Ukraine’s security.
While the agreements mark progress, they fall short of a comprehensive ceasefire. Trump’s administration has prioritised ending the war swiftly, though European nations fear concessions on Ukraine’s NATO aspirations or territorial claims. Technical discussions on implementation timelines and monitoring mechanisms are ongoing, with no clear resolution yet.
The agreements do not address more extensive territorial disputes or Russia’s attacks on civilian infrastructure, such as a recent drone strike in Kyiv that killed seven people, including a child. Analysts caution that without a unified text or joint ratification, the deals risk mirroring past failed agreements.