In a dramatic reshaping of Britain’s political landscape, Reform UK delivered an electoral performance that has stunned the nation’s political establishment. Winning 677 council seats, seizing control of 10 councils, and clinching two key mayoral races, Nigel Farage’s party eclipsed both Labour and the Conservatives in the first major political test since the 2024 general election. In doing so, it marked what many analysts now see as a definitive collapse of traditional two-party dominance.
A Seismic Electoral Shift
Reform UK’s surge was unprecedented. From holding zero contested seats going into Thursday’s local elections, the party now commands a majority in 10 local authorities, including Kent, Staffordshire, and Durham, formerly considered Conservative strongholds. The party also won its first-ever mayoral posts in the newly formed combined authorities of Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire. Former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns won decisively in Lincolnshire with over 104,000 votes, while ex-boxer Luke Campbell triumphed in Hull.
But perhaps most symbolic was the by-election victory in Runcorn and Helsby, a Labour bastion turned Reform gain by the slimmest of margins. Reform candidate Sarah Pochin overturned a nearly 15,000-vote Labour majority from the 2024 general election to win by just six votes after a recount, becoming the party’s fifth MP.
Runcorn and the Collapse of Old Allegiances
Pochin’s win represents a significant political moment. A former Conservative councillor, her victory was not only Reform’s first parliamentary gain in 2025 but a psychological blow to Labour. “It’s been a huge night for Reform. This is heartland Labour Party, their vote has collapsed and much of it has come to us.” Farage said following the result. Labour insiders cited frustration over controversial policies, such as cuts to the winter fuel allowance and benefit reforms, as key factors in the party’s erosion of working-class support.
The previous MP had vacated the seat following a conviction for assaulting a constituent, adding to the volatility of the race. Still, Reform’s ability to capture the seat under such circumstances underscores a deeper shift: voters are increasingly rejecting their long-standing political affiliations.
A Fragmented Political Landscape
The election also marked a historic degree of fragmentation. According to data from The Elections Centre, the combined vote share for Labour and the Conservatives plummeted to just 36.8%—the lowest since modern records began. Reform led with an estimated 30% share nationally, while the Liberal Democrats secured 17%, ahead of the Conservatives on 15% and Labour on 20%.
Beyond seat tallies, the data paints a clear picture of disintegration. The average winning vote share fell to just 40.7%, and the average winning majority hit a record low of 11.6%. The effective number of electoral parties in these races, a measure of political diversity, also hit a record high.
Establishment Leaders on the Back Foot
The results have ignited internal crises within both major parties. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer acknowledged that voters were not yet feeling the benefits of his government’s reforms and pledged to “go further and faster” on key issues like public services, immigration, and the cost of living. However, criticism from within his own party has grown louder, with figures such as MP Rachael Maskell and Mayor Ros Jones calling for a rethink on controversial austerity measures.
Meanwhile, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has promised a long-term effort to restore credibility, following the loss of over 670 council seats and all 16 authorities the party had been defending. “These were always going to be a very difficult set of elections,” she wrote, while ruling out any formal coalition with Reform despite overlapping voter bases.
Farage’s Next Move
At the heart of the upheaval is Nigel Farage, whose populist rhetoric and political branding have resonated with voters alienated from traditional parties. Farage has framed the 2025 results as proof that Reform is now “the real opposition” in British politics. The Tories are “toast,” he declared bluntly.
Campaigning on themes of anti-elitism, national identity, and economic disenchantment, Farage has begun expanding Reform’s platform beyond immigration to include healthcare and economic policy. Yet, with new power comes scrutiny. “Where they do win, they will need to show they can deliver the change their voters want,” noted Keiran Pedley of Ipsos.
The Road to 2029
As attention turns toward the next general election, questions loom over whether Reform UK can maintain this momentum. Britain’s first-past-the-post system still structurally favours the major parties, and low turnout, under 30% in many wards, suggests these results may not be fully predictive of national sentiment.
Nonetheless, the scale and scope of Reform’s gains indicate more than just a protest vote. This was, as one analyst put it, a “landslide in local terms” and potentially a turning point in the post-Brexit realignment of British politics.