New Zealand’s private‑sector‑driven growth story is alive — led by Canterbury’s strong performance and Auckland’s meaningful rebound. However, Wellington has unsurprisingly fallen to the bottom of the national economic rankings.
According to ASB’s latest Regional Economic Scoreboard, Canterbury finished the final quarter of 2025 as New Zealand’s best-performing regional economy, topping the list of 16 regions with consistent strength across key indicators. Canterbury secured its third quarterly win of 2025, outperforming every other region on measures including employment, retail spending, housing activity, and population growth.
Otago and Waikato were tied for second place, while Auckland — long criticised by progressive commentators for drag‑on growth — climbed smartly from seventh to fourth, driven by stronger retail spending, construction activity, and a renewed consumer confidence among hard-working families.
ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley credited Canterbury’s success to strong private economic fundamentals: strong dairy incomes, steady job growth, resilient consumer spending, and a recovering tourism sector — all hallmarks of free-market strength.
ASB also noted that an upcoming capital return from the sale of Mainland by Fonterra is expected to further energise dairy-driven regions as private investment flows back into productive sectors.
At the other end of the scoreboard, Wellington finished last. Weakness in the housing market and construction activity weighed on the capital’s performance, despite relatively stronger employment growth.
ASB expects that low interest rates may eventually help Wellington but warns that challenges remain and will likely slow any recovery.
On a national level, ASB noted signs of broader economic growth in the final quarter of 2025 as lower interest rates boosted retail spending and employment stabilised. However, headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East, including potential increases in energy costs and inflation, remain important risks flagged by economists.