A revised view of vehicle theft risk is challenging long-held assumptions across the motor insurance and fleet sectors.
New analysis shows that vehicles leading raw theft counts are not necessarily the highest risk on an individual basis.
The Toyota Hilux, frequently cited as the most stolen vehicle, drops to 12th place when thefts are adjusted for the number of vehicles registered. With 153,884 Hiluxes on the road, the annual theft risk equates to 1 in 418 — a moderate level by industry standards.
In contrast, the Ford Courier represents an extreme outlier. Although it attracts far less attention in headline statistics, a Ford Courier is 15 times more likely to be stolen than a Ford Ranger. Around 1 in 55 Couriers will be stolen annually, compared with 1 in 833 Rangers. The disparity highlights the importance of exposure-adjusted risk rather than total theft volumes.
The Mazda Bounty shows a similar profile, jumping from 18th to second place once registrations are factored in. Only 5,112 remain registered, yet theft rates are severe, with annual odds of 1 in 59.
Popular models often perceived as high risk perform better once adjusted. The Toyota Corolla and Ford Ranger both record high raw theft numbers, but individual risk is low at 1 in 971 and 1 in 833 respectively.
Older Japanese imports dominate the extreme-risk category, including the Courier, Bounty, Wish and Tiida, which typically lack factory-fitted immobilisers.
MoneyHub Head of Research Christopher Walsh says the findings should influence insurance and security decisions. “Everyone assumes the Hilux is the riskiest car to own because it’s stolen most often. But when you account for how many are on the road, it’s actually the old Ford Courier that should worry owners most.”