New Zealand’s timber exporters have secured a crucial, albeit temporary, exemption from the United States’ sweeping new tariff regime, avoiding potential disruption to an export market worth NZD $358 million annually. The exemption spares radiata pine and other wood products from tariffs under President Donald Trump’s so-called “liberation tariffs”, but leaves the door open to future changes pending the outcome of a national security investigation.
The exemption follows mounting pressure from American housing and construction industry groups, who warned that tariffs would exacerbate already high building costs and slow disaster recovery efforts. However, with a formal Section 232 investigation now underway, the future of New Zealand timber exports to the U.S. remains far from certain.
Timber’s Role in NZ’s Export Economy
The United States is New Zealand’s third-largest timber export destination, after China and Australia. Although more than half of New Zealand’s timber and lumber products go to China, the American market has grown rapidly – by 30% since 2020 – reaching $358 million in 2024. Radiata pine, in particular, is highly sought after in the U.S. for its quality and visual appeal, making it a staple in both the do-it-yourself and homebuilding markets.
Between 15 and 18 New Zealand mills supply lumber, clear pine boards, and primed products to American buyers, who value the timber for framing and finishing in residential construction. “Our timber is really well-respected in the U.S.,” said Mark Ross, Chief Executive of the Wood Processors and Manufacturers Association (WPMA). “It’s a growth market, and there’s a shortage of lumber and timber products here for the home construction and the do-it-yourself market, and that’s what we feed into.”
Trade War Meets Housing Crisis
The exemption was granted amid a broader tariff rollout targeting a range of international imports under Trump’s protectionist trade policy. Rooted in Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, the tariffs are framed as a national security measure to rebuild critical industries within the United States.
Timber was initially included in the list of targeted imports, with a baseline tariff of 10%. However, a concerted lobbying effort by U.S. trade groups successfully altered the administration’s approach. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the American Building Materials Alliance made direct appeals to the White House, including letters to President Trump and testimony before congressional subcommittees.
Their argument: raising timber costs would undercut efforts to rebuild homes destroyed in California wildfires and worsen America’s already critical housing affordability crisis. According to the WPMA, U.S. timber prices have surged more than 30% in recent months, with supply chain vulnerabilities adding further strain. “It is an unusual situation where you have a local association lobbying their Government to bring in imports, which is working for us,” Ross noted.
Exemption Under Investigation
The exemption is temporary and hinges on the results of a Section 232 national security investigation launched on March 2. Overseen by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the investigation is set to conclude in late November 2025. It will determine whether reliance on imported timber poses a threat to U.S. national interests.
New Zealand’s government has thus far taken a cautious approach. WPMA confirmed it did not make a submission to the investigation, based on advice from officials. Meanwhile, Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay’s office has confirmed ongoing discussions with U.S. trade counterparts to clarify the scope of product exemptions.
The possible outcomes range from a continuation of the exemption to the imposition of delayed or conditional tariffs. Analysts also warn of potential targeted restrictions depending on how the investigation assesses supply risk and industry resilience.
Relief at Home, Uncertainty Ahead
For now, the exemption is a source of relief to New Zealand’s timber industry, which has increasingly looked to the U.S. market to diversify away from its reliance on China. “We are just going to have to wait,” said Ross. “We don’t know.”
While radiata pine’s reputation and performance offer hope, the political climate surrounding U.S. trade policy remains unpredictable. The broader effects of the tariffs—already impacting exporters in other primary sectors—have triggered concern across New Zealand’s business community.
Industry observers warn that the situation could reshape global trade flows. A recent report from Margules Groome Consulting suggested that countries less affected by the new tariffs may gain competitive ground, while others—including Vietnam and China—may see their manufacturing supply chains disrupted. For New Zealand, the challenge is to stay competitive in a volatile landscape.