A new forecast from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) reflects the timeline for New Zealand’s declining gas production, estimating a drop below 100 petajoules per year by 2026 — not 2029 as earlier projected.
Revise Reserve Estimates as Consumption Continues
New Zealand’s proven plus probable (2P) natural gas reserves fell 27% over the past year, declining from 1300 petajoules to 948 PJ as of 1 January. “Reserves continue to reduce faster and sooner than previously forecast,” said Karlene Tipler, MBIE’s head of data service delivery. The decrease reflects a 234 PJ downward revision by gas field operators and 119 PJ in gas consumed during 2024.
Record Production Declines Across Major Fields
“Natural gas delivered from gas fields also reduced 22% in 2024 compared to 2023. The greatest contributors to this were Pohokura, Maui, Mangahewa, and Kupe fields,” said Karlene Tipler, as production from key sites dropped by a combined 109 terajoules per day. A modest upward revision of 22 PJ at the Tūrangi field left the year’s net reserve change at +2 PJ.
Report Contingent Reserve Growth Amid Inaccessibility
New data show a 10% rise in New Zealand’s contingent gas reserves, which grew by 184 PJ over the past year. However, these reserves remain unextractable under present conditions and are not expected to affect short-term availability.
Highlight Market Pressures as Prices Climb
The Gas Industry Company (GIC), New Zealand’s sector regulator, echoed MBIE’s concerns earlier this year. Its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 flagged accelerating pressure on supply and pricing.
“There is enough gas for each of industrial and commercial consumers and petrochemical production, but there is insufficient to supply all of these sectors at past levels of consumption,” the GIC noted. Average spot prices rose sharply in the first quarter of 2025, continuing a trend of sustained increases for commercial consumer
Launch Government Investment to Increase Gas Exploration
The Government announced a $200 million co-investment fund in Budget 2025 aimed at stimulating domestic gas exploration. Resources Minister Shane Jones said, “These figures are a stark reminder” of the urgent need for new investment.
“This funding will allow the Government to take a commercial stake of up to 15% in new gas projects that feed the domestic market, helping to reduce sovereign risk and attract offshore investment,” he added.
While government measures aim to support the sector, the supply-demand gap remains unresolved. MBIE’s latest outlook aligns with earlier GIC concerns, pointing to a persistent strain on New Zealand’s natural gas system.