The political sentiment in New Zealand is shifting as new polls indicate a narrowing gap between Labour and National. Once trailing significantly, Labour is now within striking distance of National, raising the possibility of a left-bloc government come the next election.
Latest Polls Indicate a Tightening Race
The latest 1News-Verian poll shows National dropping three percentage points to 34%, while Labour has climbed four points to 33%. The Greens remain steady at 10%, while ACT has inched up one point to 9%. New Zealand First has slipped to 5%, and Te Pāti Māori has seen a significant drop of three points, now sitting at 4%.
These numbers translate to a potential 61-seat majority for Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori, giving them just enough to form a government. The right bloc—comprising National, ACT, and New Zealand First—would secure only 60 seats, leaving them one seat short of a majority due to an overhang.
The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, conducted around the same period, paints a similar picture. National stands at 31.9% (up 2.3 points), while Labour is at 31.3% (up 0.4 points). The Greens have made the most significant gain, jumping 3.7 points to 13.2%, while ACT has dipped to 10% and New Zealand First to 6.4%. Based on these figures, the left bloc would also secure the 61 seats necessary to govern.
The Roy Morgan poll, however, presents a more conservative outlook for Labour, with the National-led coalition still holding a 50% lead over the left bloc’s 46.5%. Though Labour has gained 2.5 points to 28.5%, the right-wing coalition remains ahead in seat projections.
What’s Driving Labour’s Gains?
Labour’s resurgence appears to be driven by increasing economic concerns. Cost-of-living issues remain top of mind for voters, with the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll identifying 24.5% of respondents listing it as their biggest concern, followed by the economy (17%) and healthcare (13.9%).
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has closed the gap on Christopher Luxon in preferred Prime Minister rankings, now sitting at 17% (+2 points) compared to Luxon’s 22% (-2 points) in the 1News-Verian poll. A similar trend appears in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, where Hipkins has risen 2.3 points to 17.6%, while Luxon has dropped 3.8 points to 20.7%.
Government approval ratings also paint a grim picture for the coalition. The 1News-Verian poll shows 50% of respondents believe New Zealand is heading in the wrong direction, while just 39% believe it is on the right track. The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll mirrors this sentiment, with a net right/wrong direction score of -15.8%, down 1.8 points from last month.
The Challenge of Forming a Government
While the numbers suggest a potential path for Labour to return to power, there are significant hurdles to overcome. A Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori coalition would be possible only by the slimmest of margins, and historical trends suggest that maintaining such alliances can be challenging.
Meanwhile, National leader Christopher Luxon remains confident in his government’s approach, acknowledging the difficulties Kiwis are facing but insisting that “the plan is working.” He blames the previous government for New Zealand’s economic woes, stating that National inherited “six years of economic mismanagement” from Labour.
ACT leader David Seymour, whose party saw a slight gain in the 1News-Verian poll, remains optimistic but notes that the economy remains the deciding factor for voters. “I think in the long term all three governing parties will do better as the economy improves. Right now we’re doing the spade work,” he said.
Te Pāti Māori’s Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, despite her party’s dip in the polls, remains steadfast. She argues that her party has been unfairly targeted by the coalition government, saying, “Every time we’re in the House, [the government’s] strategy is to attack Te Pāti Māori.”
What’s Next?
With the election still far off, these numbers underscore how volatile voter sentiment remains. If Labour continues to close the gap, National may need to reconsider its economic messaging to maintain its lead. Meanwhile, Labour must capitalise on its momentum while ensuring it does not repeat the missteps that led to its dramatic fall from 50% in 2020 to just 27% in 2023.
The role of minor parties like the Greens and Te Pāti Māori could be crucial in determining the final balance of power. If these trends continue, the 2026 election may be a far more competitive contest than initially expected.