April 9, 2026

Oil hits $100 and the market barely notices

Close-up of a computer screen showing dynamic financial market data and charts, indicating real-time trading updates.

The war premium that wasn’t

Oil prices surged from around US$60 per barrel to over US$100 following the US-Israeli strike on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, blocking roughly 20% of global oil supply. Some analysts are forecasting prices could reach US$150.

By any historical standard, this should be a crisis. Instead, the NZX50 has fallen roughly 5% since the conflict began on 28 February, broadly matching the S&P500’s 4% decline and outperforming the ASX200, which dropped over 7%. That is not panic. That is a market shrugging at a major geopolitical shock.

Retail investors are buying, not running

The behavioural data tells a more interesting story than the index numbers. Sharesies recorded a new monthly trading record of $1.9 billion in October 2025, with investors making twice as many deposits as withdrawals for two consecutive weeks late in the quarter. Trading swung heavily toward individual companies at 79% of activity, suggesting active engagement rather than passive inertia.

The InvestNow/Informed Investor 2026 Sentiment Survey reinforces the picture. International geopolitics is the top concern for 22% of respondents, but that anxiety is not translating into exits. Only 1.5% identify as speculators. The dominant motivations are retirement security at 44% and family wealth building at 25%, a cohort structurally oriented toward staying invested. Those who maintained regular contributions or bought dips during April 2025’s tariff shock saw the S&P500 close 2025 with a 17% gain, validating the strategy in real time.

$122 billion in the line of fire

The stakes are not trivial. Total KiwiSaver balances reached $121.86 billion as of December 2024, held across 3.29 million members with an average balance of $37,079, up 16.5% year-on-year. That strong result reflects 2024’s bull run, but it also means many members are experiencing their first real drawdown. Overseas equity holdings within KiwiSaver reached $49.585 billion as of March 2024, directly exposed to geopolitical repricing.

And the vulnerability is not evenly distributed. Seventeen percent of KiwiSaver members aged 51-65 hold less than $10,000. For that cohort, a 5% dip is not a rounding error. It is sequence-of-returns risk with real consequences.

The professionals see opportunity, with caveats

Ashley Gardyne, Chief Investment Officer at Fisher Funds, notes that markets have “held up better than expected given the disruption scale” but warns that “longer conflict duration increases economic slowdown risks.” Mike Taylor from Pie Funds is actively identifying entry points created by fear-driven repricing.

The more cautious voice belongs to Salt Funds managing director Matt Goodson, who warns that higher oil prices represent “a major negative supply-side shock” and that New Zealand sits far down global supply chains, making it vulnerable if conflict extends weeks or months. That is the stagflationary scenario: inflation rises, growth falls, and central banks have nowhere to go.

ASB CIO Frank Jasper offers the statistical anchor. Since 2009, the S&P500 has fallen more than 5% on 32 occasions while still recording all-time highs. Markets typically recover within 47 days from shocks, with 68% of cases showing higher values 12 months later.

Discipline or default setting

Here is the uncomfortable question. Are Kiwi investors genuinely more disciplined after living through Covid, Ukraine, and the 2025 tariff shock? Or is KiwiSaver’s architecture doing the heavy lifting, with auto-enrolment, auto-contribution, and enough friction to prevent rash decisions?

The honest answer is both. Newsroom’s analysis points out that developed economies are structurally less oil-dependent than in 1973, the US is now the world’s largest oil producer, and global stockpiles provide a buffer. Markets have been trained, repeatedly, not to panic.

For business owners and decision-makers, the real question is not whether to sell. Mark Lister’s analysis shows that average returns in the first month after a market bottom are 13.2%, after three months 24.9%, and after 12 months 35.8%. Timing the exit is nearly impossible.

The real question is what it means that a partially closed global shipping chokepoint and oil at US$100 barely registers as a crisis anymore. If markets have genuinely priced in a higher baseline of geopolitical risk, that is rational. If they have simply learned to ignore it, the next shock that does not resolve in 47 days will be a rude correction for 3.29 million KiwiSaver members who thought staying put was always the right answer.

Sources

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