A $10 billion quarter, unevenly shared
KiwiSaver members finished the June quarter a combined $10 billion richer from contributions and market returns, according to Morningstar’s latest KiwiSaver survey published on 30 July 2026. But the recovery was anything but even. Conservative funds averaged 3.3% for the quarter while aggressive funds averaged 11.9% – a 3.6x gap in three months.
That spread is the story. The total number will lead every bulletin, but for anyone with money in the scheme the real lesson is who got what, and why.
The category breakdown
Over 12 months the dispersion is wider still. From the Morningstar data reported by RNZ, the top one-year performers by category were ASB conservative at 7.9%, MAS moderate at 10.7%, Fisher Funds balanced at 16.1%, AMP growth at 21.5% and Koura aggressive at 26.5%.
The three-year annualised numbers matter even more because compounding does the heavy lifting. ASB conservative returned 7.7% a year over three years; Kernel aggressive returned 17.1%. On a $50,000 balance left alone for a decade, the difference between 7.7% and 17.1% annualised is roughly $103,000 versus $245,000. That is not a rounding error. That is a house deposit.
Why clean energy ran so hard
The headline eye-catcher was Kernel’s global clean energy fund, up 98.4% over 12 months – essentially doubling members’ money in a year. Koura’s clean energy fund returned 31.8% in the quarter alone.
This is not a fluke, it is a structural theme. Kernel founder Dean Anderson told RNZ the sector was being driven by AI and data centre growth: “they are hungry for energy.” He added that governments were looking to expedite energy security “through all levers and renewables are one of them.” Koura founder Rupert Carlyon pointed to the same combination of AI demand and high oil prices.
Anderson was careful not to let anyone extrapolate: “Near-100 percent returns were not normal and should not be expected… what we are seeing in markets generally is that very wide dispersion.”
The experts who called it right
Back in April 2026, when Q1 volatility had everyone rattled, several investment specialists warned against fleeing to conservative funds. University of Auckland finance associate professor Gertjan Verdickt warned that switching to conservative investments during volatility locks in losses and causes investors to miss recoveries. Pie Funds chief executive Ana-Marie Lockyer advised against jumping in or out on headlines. Anderson’s line at the time was that investing “works best when boring and consistent.”
The June quarter is the receipt. Anyone who bailed into conservative funds in March crystallised their losses and then sat out an 11.9% average quarter in aggressive funds. Staying the course was not blind optimism, it was the evidence-based call.
The inertia costing business owners
Here is where it gets personal. Many KiwiSaver members, especially business owners who set the scheme up years ago and never revisited it, sit in default or conservative funds by inertia rather than choice. As of March 2025 the FMA reported total funds under management of $123.1 billion and an average member balance of $36,349, with net investment returns of $6.4 billion for that year. That total will be materially higher now given the quarterly gains.
The cost of not looking is no longer abstract. It is 3.3% versus 11.9% in a quarter, 7.9% versus 26.5% over a year. When did you last check your fund setting? For a lot of readers the honest answer is “when I set up the company,” and the Morningstar numbers make that answer expensive.
Don’t chase last year’s winner
The caveat cuts the other way too. Koura’s bitcoin fund lost 41.9% over 12 months, a reminder that risk does not always pay in the short term. New Zealand equities continued to lag global peers amid subdued domestic conditions.
The forward-looking point is Anderson’s dispersion warning. The sectors leading today may not lead tomorrow, which is an argument for diversification and an age-appropriate risk setting, not for chasing the fund that just doubled. The quarter rewarded exposure and it rewarded patience. What it did not reward was the person who never opened the statement.
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