Donald Trump’s return to the White House is already reshaping global policy, and media laws in New Zealand and Australia could be among the first areas to feel the impact. With his administration’s strong stance against regulations that target U.S. businesses, experts warn that both countries’ efforts to rein in big tech could face diplomatic and economic pushback.
Trump’s Big Tech Stance and the Risk of U.S. Retaliation
During his first term, Trump frequently clashed with major technology firms, accusing them of anti-conservative bias and overreach in content moderation. His administration resisted global efforts to regulate U.S.-based companies like Meta, Google, and X Corp (formerly Twitter), arguing that such policies unfairly targeted American businesses.
Now, Trump is back, and his administration has signalled a renewed focus on protecting U.S. companies from what it deems “discriminatory” foreign regulations. According to The Australian Financial Review, one of Trump’s latest executive orders directs officials to investigate and potentially retaliate against any foreign government that imposes policies seen as unfairly burdening American corporations. This directive, based on a decades-old section of the U.S. tax code, could put Australia’s proposed “News Bargaining Incentive” in Washington’s crosshairs.
Under this Australian initiative, platforms like Google and Meta would be required to either negotiate payments with local news organisations or face mandatory fees imposed by the federal government. The plan is an extension of the existing 2021 News Media Bargaining Code, which was designed to ensure big tech firms compensate domestic media for the use of their content.
New Zealand had been considering a similar approach through its Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill, but Media Minister Paul Goldsmith recently announced a pause in its progress. The delay was partly due to Australia’s evolving policy, but with Trump now in power, there is growing uncertainty about whether New Zealand will move forward at all.
Trade and Diplomatic Pressure Loom Over Policy Decisions
Experts suggest that the Trump administration could use trade pressure to dissuade Australia and New Zealand from pushing forward with their media laws. Trump’s “America First” trade philosophy has previously led to aggressive tactics, including tariffs and trade restrictions, against allies.
“Trump’s memorandum included any foreign countries that are regarded as not complying with their US tax treaties or have, or are likely to put in place, any tax rules that “disproportionately affect American companies,” University of Melbourne law professor Miranda Stewart wrote in The Conversation. “This could put Australia’s proposed ‘news bargaining incentive‘ in the crosshairs.”
Past instances suggest this is a real possibility. During Trump’s first term, his administration engaged in multiple trade disputes with allies, including Canada and the European Union, over digital taxation policies. A similar approach could be applied to Australia’s proposed media regulations, and New Zealand could get caught in the fallout.
Uncertain Future for Media Regulation and Online Safety
Beyond financial disputes, Trump’s return also raises questions about the future of content moderation and online extremism regulations in New Zealand and Australia.
Both countries have taken steps to hold tech companies accountable for harmful content. New Zealand, in particular, played a key role in launching the Christchurch Call after the 2019 terrorist attack, pushing for global cooperation in combating online extremism. However, Trump has long opposed measures that restrict online speech, arguing that such policies suppress free expression.
Meta’s recent move to scale back content moderation in the U.S. could foreshadow a broader trend that aligns with Trump’s stance. If American tech companies feel emboldened by Trump’s policies, they may be less willing to comply with initiatives like the Christchurch Call, limiting the effectiveness of efforts to curb harmful online content.
NZ’s Wait-and-See Approach Could Backfire
New Zealand’s decision to delay action on its media bargaining bill may have been intended as a strategic pause, but it could leave the country in a vulnerable position. While Australia is moving forward with its plans despite potential U.S. retaliation, New Zealand’s government now faces an increasingly uncertain environment.
Google has already signalled that if forced to pay media companies, it may pull back funding for news partnerships altogether. Newsroom reports that Google’s financial contributions to New Zealand media outlets—including NZME’s Google News Showcase partnership—could end this year, worsening the financial pressures facing the industry.
For local media organisations already struggling with revenue losses, this uncertainty is a major concern. NZME recently announced 38 newsroom job cuts, a sign of the sector’s ongoing difficulties. Without clear government action, some fear that delaying the media bargaining bill could leave domestic news outlets without the financial support they need to survive.
A Balancing Act for New Zealand and Australia
Australia appears committed to pressing forward with its media bargaining reforms, but Trump’s policies could force a reconsideration.
For New Zealand, the government’s hesitation may protect it from immediate U.S. retaliation, but at the cost of leaving its media industry without a long-term funding solution.