A $800 million contract reshuffles the deck
Hawkins claimed the top spot in BCI Central’s 2025 Construction League on the strength of $1.2 billion across 31 projects started in 2024. But strip out the $800 million Auckland Airport domestic jet terminal and the ASX-listed Downer EDI subsidiary would be sitting well below the firm it displaced.
Naylor Love, which topped the rankings in 2023 with $820 million, slipped to second with $828 million across 94 projects. The numbers tell two completely different stories about how to survive a construction downturn. Hawkins bet on one transformational job. Naylor Love spread risk across nearly a hundred.
The top 10 builders captured $5.2 billion of the top 50’s $8.6 billion total, roughly 60 percent of all value. For subcontractors, the implication is stark: the biggest opportunities now sit with a handful of firms.
Naylor Love’s paradox – record revenue in a shrinking market
Despite losing the number one ranking, Naylor Love is forecasting $1.04 billion in annual revenue for its current financial year, the most in its 115-year history. CEO Bruno Goedeke explained the logic: ‘In 115 years, we have never had more than $1b revenue annually. People ask me how that’s possible when times are so tough. We do well where there’s complexity.’
That complexity strategy translates into five current projects each exceeding $200 million, including the $329 million Wellington Town Hall redevelopment, the Skyline Queenstown gondola redevelopment, and Ikea at Sylvia Park. Goedeke identified the moat directly: ‘A limited number of big national contractors could complete complex construction jobs.’
For lenders assessing credit risk, the distinction matters. A builder whose ranking rests on one contract has a thinner forward book than one running 94 projects across the country.
The market these firms are navigating
Stats NZ data for the December 2025 quarter confirms the backdrop is genuinely hostile. Total building value fell 3.6 percent year-on-year to $7.7 billion. Non-residential building dropped 6.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Hubexo’s January 2026 outlook described the sector as being in a period of reset rather than rebound. Ashleigh Porter, President APAC at Hubexo, said: ‘New Zealand is not in a bounce-back period. What we’re in right now is a reset. Firms are consolidating rather than expanding, and prioritising delivery confidence over growth for growth’s sake.’
Guy Randall, Chief Executive of developer Wolfbrook, was blunter: ‘We’re trading through what is arguably the worst recession since 1991.’
Capacity is leaving the system
The most forward-looking signal in the data is not who won the league table but what happens when the cycle turns. Leonard Gardner, Director at Fosters, warned: ‘We worked incredibly hard in 2025 just to stand still. The risk is that capacity has left the system, and when demand comes back, cost pressure will return very quickly.’
The National Construction Pipeline Report 2025 projects steady growth in infrastructure activity and rising multi-unit consents through to 2030. When that demand materialises, the builders who held their teams together through 2024 and 2025 will control pricing power.
Naylor Love’s 1,000-strong workforce and Hawkins’ airport mega-project both represent retained capacity. But the dozens of smaller firms that shed staff to survive will not scale back up overnight. For anyone planning a major build in 2027 or 2028, the cost implications are already being set today. The league table is not just industry gossip. It is a leading indicator of who will be able to deliver when the pipeline refills, and at what price.
Sources
- Power list: BCI names NZ’s busiest commercial builders for projects started in 2024 (2025-03)
- Construction League New Zealand 2025 (2025)
- New Zealand’s 10 busiest builders based on value of new projects started last year (2024)
- Naylor Love forecasts a 115-year record $1.04b revenue (2025-03-27)
- Value Of Building Work Put In Place: December 2025 Quarter (2026-03)
- New Zealand’s Construction Outlook 2026: What Leaders Are Saying (2026-01-01)